The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 16 February 2010 /

Steve thinks we could be due a big-priced winner at this year's Match Play Championship in Arizona, so he's chancing a batch of outsiders.....

The WGC Match Play Championship kicks off tomorrow, live on Sky, and with 32 first round matches, there's sure to be shocks aplenty.

The Match Play's a brutally straightforward knockout event for the best 64 players on the planet. After rounds one, two, and three on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, both the quarter-finals and semi-finals are staged on Saturday, before Sunday's Final, which will be played out over 36 holes. All other matches are over 18 holes.

Despite the rumours, Tiger Woods doesn't tee it up in Arizona and neither does Phil Mickelson, who's taking time out for a family holiday, but after that, the world's elite are all present.

A quick glance at the betting shows immediately how the sands are shifting in world golf - of the top 11 in the market, only favourite and world number two, Steve Stricker, is American. There are two Australians and the other eight are all Europeans!

In great form, Stricker has an obvious chance and looks to have a decent enough draw. He's also a previous winner, having won it back in 2001, the only year it was played outside of the States. In a very weak field, as a 100/1 outsider, he beat Pierre Fulke in the final.

The most likely winner of those at the forefront of market has to be defending champion Geoff Ogilvy. He's played the event four times and has reached the final three times, winning twice! The only time he didn't get to the final he lost in round one to Justin Leonard, but I'm not backing him...yet.

A few weeks ago he was a doubtful starter, but his wife has delivered their third child in time for him to play. I may well back him once he's negotiated the early rounds, but I'm a little worried that his paternity break will mean he's not super sharp straight away, and he'll need to be. First round opponent Alex Noren is no mug, and looking back at Ogilvy's record in the event he's struggled in the early rounds anyway.

I also like the chances of Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy but they're just too short and besides, there's a chance we could just be a due a shock result....

In the first four years of the event, 1999 - 2002, all four winners started at or around a triple-figure price. Since then the winners have been more obvious but I've taken the decision to side with a batch of outsiders to begin with and see where that gets me.

The lowest priced of my 12 picks is by far my strongest fancy. Luke Donald has an impressive match play CV that stretches right back to his amateur days, when he was four from four in Walker Cup singles. His Ryder Cup record is 5-1-1 and he's progressed to at least the second round in each of his five appearances in this event. Injury saw him concede his third round match against Ernie Els last year and also resulted in him missing the Ryder Cup in '08. He' s finally injury free now after a long, long rehabilitation following a left wrist tendon injury, picked up in the US Open of 2008, and he comes here following a 2nd place at Riviera and a 16th placed finish at Pebble Beach.

Match play is a different kettle of fish to stroke play golf and the usual bottle issues don't apply. I'm very rarely interested in Donald in stroke play events as he repeatedly comes up short in contention, but at [60.0] here, he looks a great bet.

Selections:

Luke Donald @ [60.0], Stephen Ames @ [170.0],
Nick Watney @ [70.0], Michael Sim @ [170.0],
Hunter Mahan @ [95.0], Brian Gay @ [180.0],
Chad Campbell @ [150.0], Justin Leonard @ [220.0],
Ben Crane @ [160.0], Thongchai Jaidee @ [280.0],
David Toms @ [160.0], Jeev Milkha Singh @ [300.0]

The only other event this week is the PGA Tour event in Mexico, the Mayakoba Golf Classic. This is only the fourth staging, but a quick look at the short list of winners tells you all you need to know.

Fred Funk, Brian Gay and Mark Wilson are all straight hitters who can handle windy conditions. Being wild and long off the tee will get you absolutely nowhere around El Camaleon, so I've gone for two picks with very similar profiles to the previous champions.

KJ Choi is making his event debut this week but he's starting to find a bit of form. He won in Malaysia back in October and it seems to have given him a boost. If he plays as well as he has in the last three weeks he's sure to be in contention and the price is just about fair.

Heath Slocum was a selection of mine in this event 12 months ago, at a healthy [130.0]. He's considerably shorter this time around but last year's 3rd place finish confirmed that my instinct was correct and that this place is right up his street. He's not in great form but that doesn't unduly worry me. His high profile fed-ex cup event win in last year's Barclays was sandwiched in-between a couple of missed cuts.

Selections:

KJ Choi @ [16.5]
Heath Slocum @ an average of [23.0]

I'll post an update on Saturday morning, by which time they'll be up to halfway in Mexico and there'll only be eight left in the Match Play.

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