The Joker's Bet of the Day: Tuesday February 08

The Joker's bet of the day / The Joker / 08 February 2011 / 3

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The Joker's Bet of the Day: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.95] in Leyton Orient v Swindon Town

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way...

What goes on Tours stays on Tours.

Tours scored last night alright. But Evian didn't. And, unusually, it's the not scoring that is the scandal.

But let's move swiftly on. To League One, no less. In which Leyton Orient are playing Swindon Town tonight.

Five of Orient's last six at Brisbane Road (this is as close as the Joker will get to Australia, this week, he assures yesterday's readers) have gone Over 2.5 Goals and so have 10 of Swindon's 13 away games this season.

Recommendation: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.95] in Leyton Orient v Swindon Town

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greenday | 08 February 2011

F-ELO ratings for L'Orient V Swindon.

Both teams ~ last five V bottom half.

Home - W2-0 W 3-0 W 1-0 D 0-0 W 1-0
H/T ~ D 0-0 W 1-0 W 1-0 D 0-0 D 0-0.

Away ~ D 3-3 D 3-3 L 1-0 L 2-0 L 1-3
H;T ~ D 1-1 D 1-1 D 0-0 L 1-0 L 1-0.

F/T unders = 6 ~ overs = 4.
60% ~ 40% ~ not conclusive.

More conclusive is 100% unders in 1st half goals market!
greenday | 08 February 2011

Important amendment to my previous comment.

The conclusive indication of 100% unders in last five games for both teams
verses bottom half teams (same ability), refers to under 2.5 goals in the first half.
The 1st half goals market is for U/O 1.5, therefore the figures relate to 80% which still represents value over long term.

Alternative trade is to scalp under 2.5 in match odds at percentage of bank, then transfer any profit to overs as The Joker advises. Obviously an early goal will scupper the scalping as prices rise until the time deteriation axis returns lower levels without further goals

If no early goal, cease scalping around the 13th minute then transfer profits over to the overs (if desired), as the price on overs will be higher than pre-match giving further value.

This is a personal rating opinion, I am not part of any commercial endeavour.
greenday | 08 February 2011

Half time report.

Great call by The Joker which enlightened me to blind the ratings and plump for the scalping trade. Seat of the pants though, just managed to lay off last ascending lay at the 13th min when bang, Orient scored.

No time to transfer profit as the price on overs obviously dropped below value.

Also had Orient covered -0&0.05 as insurance so the quarter ball, now layed off added to profit!