Wimbledon Betting / Editor / 19 June 2010 /

Gary Boswell likes the big price available on a young Italian to break her nation's Grand Slam title duck. Meanwhile, our man reckons this could be year that both Williams sisters are exposed. Didn't he say that last year, though?

I'm pretty keen on Flavia Pennetta as my number one dark horse for Wimbledon 2010. Quite apart from the fact that, alongside Francesca Schiavone, she's been on my Italian watch list for a while now, I do actually feel that she may get a huge boost from her compatriot's success at The Garros.

If you'd asked most Italian tennis aficionados which Italian woman was most likely to break the duck of winning a Grand Slam event, the answer would have been, mostly, Pennetta. She is the number one in the country, now ranked number 11 in the world. A serious doubles player with titles under her belt alongside Gisele Dulko and Elena Dementieva, she also has a fiery passion for Federation Cup tennis where Italy have notched considerable success in recent years.

She will have looked at how Schiavone went into the gym to prepare for The Garros and got her strength play up at least two notches. She also shares Schiavone's calm and belief so she's not likely to suffer the dreaded 'women's wobbles'.

As preparation for the possible upcoming Schiavone v Pennetta head to head in Paris, I did an in depth Italian assessment and concluded that Pennetta - who has a 2-4 head to head deficit but has won both recent tussles - was the one to back. Slightly younger and with more scope for improvement, she should be seriously watched now at the [290.00] price in the Wimbledon outright winner market.

Not a natural on grass, Penetta had an indifferent Eastbourne in preparation - going out early against Ekaterina Makarova. It was a tight first set, however, suggesting that her form is ok and result also pushed her Wimbledon price out.

My other two dark horses are both much more early back to lays. Yanina Wickmayer is arguably a bit short in price [150.00] due to her form but I still believe her game is progressing.

Marion Bartoli has Wimbledon form that surpasses most of her other achievements in the game. Not the greatest mover, she has a serious hot and cold streak in her and some bogey players against whom she cannot score a win. She's not everybody's idea of a Grand Slam champion but at [170.00] - and in excellent grass court form at Eastbourne this week - she is an excellent back to lay opportunity.

The three lays are quite predictable. You take on the Williamses at Wimbledon at your peril but I remain in the camp that considers them coming to the nadir of their careers. Both rely on the power that is so potent on grass and Serena's serve remains a formidable weapon but she can be taken on at [3.35] without too much difficulty. There will come a game when her occasional court clumsiness is exposed - as it was in last year's semi against Dementieva - and she can be safely hedged back in play. I do think it's a toss up whether she will win this year and I'm not inclined to go heavy on my lay as a result. I'll take her and big sis on at the prices though. I'm convinced that both will have their eye more firmly and realistically on defending their doubles crown.

Maria Sharapova is too short at [14.0]. Yes, she has Wimbledon pedigree but the second set mauling by Li Na in the Birmingham prep final shows where she is at in her long recovery programme. Perhaps one day she will come back but that body was battered by hefty wear and tear at a young age. We've seen plenty of instance of that never really being satisfactorily repaired. I'd have her as a QF player at best in 2010. Several of the top 20 will feel they have every chance of playing through her in current form.

As for Kim Clijsters and Justine Henin? They're in my watch and see bracket. If Justine still has the game - as Melbourne suggested she might - she will be giving this gap in her CV her absolute best shot. It is presumably why she came back from retirement. She may also have taken heart from the title Schiavone won at The Garros. The Italian won playing the Henin way.

Recommended bets and current P/L

Back Flavia Pennetta 1pt @ [290.00] +292

Back Marion Bartoli 1pt @ [170.0] +172

Back Yanina Wickmayer 1pt @ [150.0] +152

Lay Serena Williams 3pt @ [3.35] -8.05

Lay Venus Williams 1pt @ [5.5] -3.50

Lay Maria Sharapova 1pt @ [14.0] -12.0

The rest of the field +2

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