Wimbledon Betting / Ben Caudell / 29 June 2010 /

Na Li comes into today's quarter-final match in the form of her life and there's enough about her and her game to create one huge upset against the world number one Serena Williams, says Ben Caudell.

Serena Williams (USA) v Na Li (CHN)

Chinese super star Na Li could provide us with the biggest shock of the tournament thus far, if she manages to combat the Centre Court jitters and plays to the same standard as she has done throughout this year's championship. She will however be facing one of the all time greats. A Wimbledon Champion on no less than three occasions and the current top seed and number one world ranked player.

Na Li is just the sort of player Serena hates to engage in long rallies with. The 28 year-old, who is quick around the court, has a short take-back on both sides and a half-decent serve. She will need to try to dictate the tempo of the match and force Serena into making unforced errors from the back of the court. As important as any technical or tactical element, she will have to be entirely focused on the job in hand and not become too overwhelmed by her opponent's power and single-mindedness.

Serena is understandably the overwhelming favourite to win today; she comes into this match as the reigning Wimbledon champion and has a 4-1 head-to-head series lead over Na Li. Of the five matches, three have been won in the final set and the other two were won in close straight sets. Their most recent match, played at this year's Australian Open semi final, was won by Serena in two tie-break sets.

Like Serena, Li is yet to drop a set at this year's all England Championship. She came into Wimbledon having won the grass court Birmingham international event, defeating world class players Maria Sharapova and Aravane Rezai in the final and semi final respectively.

She is currently 9-1 on this surface and 8-2 in Grand Slams. I believe that there will be chances in this match for Na Li; it's just whether she is able to turn these openings into match winning situations that will be the difference between becoming just another Serena victim or a rare conqueror of this truly great champion.

With all the previous encounters being extremely close and due to the fact that Na Li is in the form of her life at the moment, I think there is definitely value in laying Serena to win in straight sets and backing the Li + 5.5 games handicap market. Serena has only once defeated the Chinese lady by more than 5.5 games and this was way back in 2006.

Selection:

Back Li +5.5 Games @ [1.72]
Lay S Williams 2-0 @ [1.58]
Back Na Li @ [6.0] to win match (small stakes bet)

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