Wimbledon Betting / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 13 June 2011 / 1

Jamie Pacheco has decided that only Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are capable of winning Wimbledon this year. But once we've got that far, how do we deal with each one in terms of the betting? Read on.

1/25. No, not the odds on one of the BBC's commentators smugly telling us how clay court specialists "don't like the uneven bounce and slick surface of our courts". The odds on that are a lot shorter. That's the number of times a Grand Slam hasn't been won by one of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer or Novak Dkojovic over the last 25 editions. Step forward 2009 US Open winner Juan Martin Del Potro.

A case could be made for someone like Robin Soderling, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or even Del Potro again finding a rich vein of form and hitting a barrage of winners on their way to the US Open title later on in the year. But that's highly unlikely to happen here at Wimbledon because grass is such a unique surface requiring particularly specialised skills on which to excel.

So we're going to focus solely on the three guys who have dominated Grand Slams over the past six years with one exception: we're also going to allow Andy Murray (10.5) to gatecrash our little study here. Let's start with the home favourite.

After a crushing defeat to Djokovic in the final of the US Open, Murray simply couldn't win a match, his game had gone to pieces and a slide down the rankings looked inevitable. All that changed in Monte Carlo in mid-April where he pushed Nadal all the way in the semi, losing in three. He built on that performance with another brilliant showing at the French Open, again losing to Nadal in the semis (this time in straight sets) but on another day it could have been a lot closer; the way they both played, on another surface he may even have won. The Scotsman is serving well, moving fine after that troublesome ankle appears to have healed and has shown the ability to make the most of break point chances that have come his way at Queens' this week. With the crowd behind him and two semis here over the last couple of years, Murray's certainly worth siding with before the off. If only because his price is so much bigger than the other three.

The problem Murray back-to-lay merchants have is that he'll probably have to beat Rafa Nadal in the semis (assuming Nadal is top seed and Murray seeded four) before his price shortens considerably, but that's not inconceivable. His record against Rafa at Wimbledon is poor and that's a big concern but he's the bigger server of the two and with the Spaniard looking the more fatigued of the four, we can make a case for Murray actually out-lasting Nadal in a long match...or the French Open champion not even making the semis. The Spaniard was 2-1 down to John Isner in the first round of the French Open remember and if he came up against someone like Isner, Querrey or Milos Raonic early on at Wimbledon, facing service bombs for three hours, he could be vulnerable. Of course the mark of a great champion is to win from seemingly impossible positions and play the big points better than the 'smaller' ones. Nadal is better at that than anyone but at [3.65] we don't want to be paying a premium to find out if he can keep on doing it.

We're not convinced about Novak Djokovic's Wimbledon credentials, much less his price of [4.4]. His incredible run of 41 victories in a row in 2011, which included seven tournament wins, came to an end against Federer in the semis of the French and proved to both Djokovic and the rest of the ATP Tour, that he wasn't unbeatable after all. More worrying though is Djokovic's record at Wimbledon where he has two semi-final appearances in the last six years - good, but not great - and the fact he'll go to SW19 without playing on a tournament on grass, after pulling out of Queen's. He's also confirmed he's not playing the AEGON International or The Unicef Open next week. One to lay.

Ah, Roger. Just when we thought the floppy-haired one was on the way down, he went and did what no-one had been able to do for five and a half-months. There were no injuries, fatigue, dodgy line calls or ball boys running onto the court as his opponent lined up a smash; he beat Djokovic fair and square and put in a strong display in the final, albeit in a losing cause. Pedigree doesn't come much better than six wins in south-west London and a runner-up spot but he's won just one tournament in 2011 (Qatar Open) and put in a shocker against Tomas Berdych last year in the quarter-finals for no particularly good reason. There are a few uncertainties surrounding him to justify taking the [3.85] on him, whilst his record here means he deserves too much respect for us to take him on.

Recommended bets:

3 pts lay Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon at [4.4]
1 pt back Andy Murray at [10.5]

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1. Anonymous | 10 June 2011

   "The problem Murray back-to-lay merchants have is that he'll probably have to beat Rafa Nadal in the semis (assuming Nadal is top seed and Murray seeded four)...."

   The 3rd and 4th seeds are drawn randomly into their own half, 1st does not automatically play 4th.

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