Wimbledon Betting / Ralph Ellis / 22 June 2010 /

He may have battled back from two sets down on day one but Roger Federer is a fading force and should be opposed at Wimbeldon, says Ralph Ellis. But haven't we heard that before?

I've written off Roger Federer before. Two years ago I began Wimbledon by writing that his era was ending - and for a moment, when Rafael Nadal won that gruelling 2008 final, I patted myself on the back for being so right. Surely just as Bjorn Borg was blown out of tennis by his incredible 1981 defeat against John McEnroe, so Federer would be finished by the five monumental sets of arguably the game's greatest ever final.

I was half right. He's only won four of the seven Grand Slams since! And got to the final of two of the others, of course. Ok, so I was completely wrong! But that doesn't mean I'm not ready to risk making the same mistake again.

In 2008 Federer lost because it was Nadal's time. The muscled kid from Majorca was at his peak, hungry, fit and burning with desire to take the one title nobody said he could achieve. This year? Well, there are real signs that the great Swiss champion is beginning to lose his edge. And the evidence of day one is not to back him to be champion for the seventh time at [2.86], but to lay.

In fact, there are even enough obstacles in his way to contemplate laying him winning his quarter of the draw at between [1.34] and [1.48]. Nikolay Davydenko is the obvious threat, but there's just as big a danger from 6ft 5ins Czech Tomas Berdych. The French Open semi-finalist cruised through his first round against Khazakstan's Andrey Golubev yesterday and looked more than comfortable on the grass.

Of course, you could take Federer's recovery from two sets down to Alejandro Falla as a sign that the big game mentality is still in place. But it's not only me who takes the opposite view, that it was a sign that something is missing from the Champion's game.

Boris Becker, who after all knows a thing or two about what it takes to win at Wimbledon, says the same thing in his Daily Telegraph column today. "We have not seen the old Federer since he beat Andy Murray in the final of the Australian Open," is his verdict. "I have been telling friends that we are going to see a big surprise this year. Everyone in the locker room will know that although they saw him extricate himself from the tightest of spots, he is vulnerable right now. There is a real chink in the armour."

The results coming up to Wimbledon confirm that. He lost on grass to Lleyton Hewitt in Halle - and before that to journeymen like Ernest Gulbis, Albert Montanes and Robin Soderling during the clay season. And it wasn't only the erratic backhand yesterday that gave away the fact that his game has been below his own exceptional standards. For several years now Federer has walked on court at the start of the tournament wearing quirky white jackets or long trousers. This year there was no fashion statement, a little sign that the confidence and swagger is missing.

Even the great champion himself admitted "I got lucky" after surviving his first round scare. Luck is something he's never needed before. I was wrong two years ago, but this time it really could be the beginning of the end for Federer - Roger and out.


Five things you might not know about Tomas Berdych

1. Born September 1985 in the tiny Czech town of Valasske Mezirici, his dad Martin, a train engineer, introduced him to tennis aged five

2. Mum Hana, a doctor, let him move to the city of Prostejov after he won the Czech Republic Under 12 title and wanted better coaching

3. He was 16 when he won the Czech Under 18 title and turned pro a year later

4. He now lives in Monte Carlo, but keeps links to Prostejov by encouraging top ice hockey stars to go there and play. He's a fan of Detroit Red Wings

5. His girlfriend is fellow Czech tennis star world number 26 Lucie Safarova

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: