Events / Sean Calvert / 04 October 2010 /

The Asian Swing is in full swing and the world's top ranked players are all far from home as they attempt to pick up ranking points

I said last week that Viktor Troicki was a good bet for the title in Bangkok - unfortunately the Serbian won the doubles crown at the Thailand Open instead of the singles.

That said, if I'd have advised betting on a final between Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Jarkko Nieminen I may have expected a call from the nearest psychiatrist.

That result was even more incredible given that eventual winner Garcia-Lopez was a set down and spread-eagled on the floor receiving treatment from the physio in his semi against none other than Rafa Nadal.

At least I can claim credit for advising against backing the world number one in Thailand and he's in action again this week, having made the relatively short trip to Japan for the Tokyo Open.

Nadal is the number one seed on his debut in the event, which is the longest established tournament on the Asian swing, having been around since 1973.

It's played on outdoor hard with a retractable roof and the holder is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who makes his return to the tour this week having been out with an injured knee since losing to Andy Murray at Wimbledon.

Nadal's price is a more reasonable [1.83] this week as people have cottoned on to the view that many players on the Asian swing are only really in it for the appearance money and also the world number one's draw looks tougher here than in Bangkok.

He has an easy-looking start against Santiago Giraldo, but after that there are the likes of Richard Gasquet, Ernests Gulbis, Jurgen Melzer, Troicki, Juan Martin Del Potro, Feliciano Lopez and Garcia-Lopez in that top half of the draw.

The bottom half has less quality and more of a random feel about it with Andy Roddick [7.0] the lowest priced player in that section.

The American does have more of a reason than some to perform well here, as he needs ranking points from this part of the season to get back into the top eight in the world rankings (he's currently 10th) and qualify for the Masters Final in London.

A-Rod has played here before, losing to Tomas Berdych in the semi finals in 2008 and the main threats to a repeat of that sort of result are Gael Monfils, Tsonga, Radek Stepanek, Michael Llodra and based on last week possibly Nieminen.

Of those, I have a feeling that Monfils might prove to be the best value here this week.

Although I advised against backing the Frenchman in Metz, where he went on to pull out with a back injury, he's a decent price here at around [9.0] and he has experience in Tokyo, having reached the last four last year.

Lamonf (as the French call him) lost to countryman Tsonga in that match, but it's tough to see Tsonga coming off a three-month layoff to retain his title.

Both players are still in with a chance of qualifying for London, but Monfils has been in decent touch lately, with solid efforts in the US Open and tellingly, the Davis Cup where he took responsibility excellently with Tsonga out of the team.

The fact that David Ferrer won here in 2007 suggests that the Tokyo courts aren't lightning fast, which will help Monfils and he should see this a chance to improve on his world ranking of 15.

The head-to-head record of Monfils and Roddick stands at 4-4 and the winner of the scheduled quarter-final between that pair will have a fine chance of winning the event, as both have beaten Nadal before - if the Spaniard gets that far of course.

The other event on the Asian swing this week is the China Open, where the rest of the world's top 10 (with the exception of Federer) take part.

It's Andy Murray's debut in the event and he and Novak Djokovic are vying for favouritism at around [3.75].

Djokovic is the defending champion and I can see him holding on to that crown, although he does have a tougher-looking draw than the Scot.

So, this week's bets are Monfils to be big in Japan at around [9] and Djokovic to continue his reign in China at [3.75].

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