Events / Sean Calvert / 27 September 2010 /

Sean Calvert tells us why the red-hot favourite Rafael Nadal offers no sort of value in Bangkok this week whilst the enigmatic Jurgen Melzer and course-specialist Victor Troicki could be the men to side with at big prices.

My [14.0] shot Philipp Kohlschreiber gave us a good run for our money last week in Metz, where he reached the semi finals before losing to eventual champion Gilles Simon.

Other positives from last week were my advice to avoid backing Gael Monfils and Richard Gasquet, who both quit on their stools - Gasquet with yet another back problem.

This week sees the start of the ever-expanding Asian swing and the first of these events is the Bangkok Open in Thailand, which is notable in at least a couple of ways.

Firstly, it's the tournament debut of Rafa Nadal and secondly it marks the comeback of the 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro, who has endured a nightmare year with a wrist injury.

The lanky Argentine's ranking has dropped to number 35 while he's been on the sidelines, but that should change soon if he's able to work back towards his form of old.

Del Potro is still only 22-years-old and he has time to gradually play himself back to the top and great as it is to see him back, surely only the boldest of Del Potro fans will be backing him to win here at around [17.5].

His prospects here are somewhat hampered by being drawn in the same half as Nadal and Ernests Gulbis in what looks a bit of a lopsided draw.

Nadal's early rounds look pretty simple for him and his first test should come from Del Potro in a popcorn tennis quarter final, which the Thai fans should really enjoy.

The three that I've mentioned should have it between them in the top half, with Nadal unbackable at around [1.5].

Gulbis has tested Nadal lately and if the new US Open champion is not at his best, which is possible in an event like this, the Latvian could be the man to take advantage at [13.0], in his first event since being stunned by Jeremy Chardy in New York.

The star quality in the bottom half is supplied by Fernando Verdasco, who is second favourite in the betting at around [8.0] and who showed somewhere near his best form in New York where he reached the quarter finals before running into Nadal.

Verdy has played here once before, losing to Dmitry Tursunov in the 2007 semi finals and his quarter includes Mischa Zverev, who was the other Metz finalist, Benjamin Becker and the improving Dutchman Thiemo de Bakker.

You would expect Verdasco to come through that, but I wouldn't back him to do so with any degree of confidence given that his form since the French Open has generally been poor and that he still only has five titles in his entire career.

For me, better bets in that bottom section are Jurgen Melzer and Viktor Troicki, both of whom have performed well in Bangkok in the past.

Melzer is the third best in the betting here at [12.0] after Verdasco and he reached the semis here last year, losing to Simon, so he knows his way round these courts.

The Austrian number one had a so-so US Open, losing to Federer after struggling through a couple of five setters in the early rounds and he always seems to have close matches with Verdasco, which might be relevant this week.

Melzer did show some good form in Davis Cup last week winning in straights against Harel Levy and Dudi Sela, who he may play again in Bangkok as Sela is in Melzer's quarter.

The one that I think could cause a shock in the bottom half of the draw is Viktor Troicki, who clearly enjoys conditions here, having reached the final in 2009.

The Serbian bottled it a bit when called upon at short notice in the Davis Cup against Stepanek last week, but he can be forgiven for that as there was an awful lot of pressure on him and at [50.0] he's not a bad longshot for this.

Troicki reached the semis in New Haven the week before the US Open, where he then played a fabulous match against Djokovic - a match he should really have won, and anything like that form, could see him repeat last year's success.

He beat Thomaz Bellucci, John Isner and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga here last year and he doesn't have that sort of difficulty in 2010 until a possible quarter final with Melzer and semi with perhaps Verdasco, who he's never played.

It's a longshot at [50.0], but these sort of events are tough to call, with the likes of Simon, Tsonga, Tursunov and James Blake being recent winners in Bangkok.

So, on his US Open form Nadal should walk this, but this isn't Flushing Meadows and it's not worth taking the [1.5] and hoping Rafa's up for this.

He may well not be and a better option could be to choose a bigger priced player like Troicki or Melzer. They are the value bets for the Bangkok Open 2010.

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