Rome Masters Tips: Can Murray stop Djokovic's dream run?

Events / Sean Calvert / 14 May 2011 / 1

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Murray has struggled against some journeymen this week and now faces the world's best

"Djokovic’s run has to end sometime and if you fancy it to be today, you can get around [6.4] on a Murray win, but the more likely scenario is another convincing Djokovic victory."

Andy Murray meets Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals of the Rome Masters today. The Serbian is still unbeaten this year, and now Britain's best gets his chance to have a crack at ending that dream run. Sean Calvert previews the semi

I seem to be specialising in three-set thrillers lately, which is great news for fans of high-quality clay court entertainment, but not so good for us punters.

Richard Gasquet's comeback win over Tomas Berdych was the latest of these yesterday, but surely the pattern won't continue today?

It's semi-finals day at the Rome Masters and three of the top four players in the world are on show, along with the mercurial Frenchman.

I said in my tournament preview that Andy Murray has the draw to potentially reach the semis and he's done just that - becoming the first Brit since Pat Hughes in 1932 to do so.

It's not exactly been tough for Murray though, with only the likes of Potito Starace, Xavier Malisse and Florian Mayer to contend with - and he managed to drop sets in two of them.

Yesterday's 1-6 start against Mayer was the first time the German had won a set by that margin or better since beating world number 129, Steve Darcis, in Munich and that's one of the differences between today's protagonists - Novak Djokovic doesn't do bad sets against journeyman.

The last time Nole dropped a set by 6-1 or worse was to Roger Federer in London last year and you have to go back 14 months to Indian Wells 2010 to a 6-0 set for Mardy Fish to find anything close to Murray's level of slip-ups.

The point being, of course, that the Scot has faced nothing and struggled, while his opponent has destroyed all before him, including last night's demolition of Robin Soderling, who looked in great form early on and should have been a break ahead in the first set.

Djokovic fended off the challenge and hammered Soderling in the end and I can see the same happening at the Foro Italico again today, with a 2-0 Serbian win looking tempting at around [1.6].

The last seven meetings between these two have ended in straight sets wins, with only their first ever (senior) meeting back in 2006 going to a decider.

They've met once on clay, with Djokovic winning 6-0, 6-4, in Monte Carlo in 2008 and I can envisage a similar result today, but you never know with Murray.

It may be that he'll be inspired by this challenge and I wouldn't be at all shocked if he won today, with the [2.2] about him on the handicap +4.5 games looking reasonable, but you couldn't back him with any real confidence.

Djokovic's run has to end sometime and if you fancy it to be today, you can get around [6.4] on a Murray win, but the more likely scenario is another convincing Djokovic victory and another final with Rafa to look forward to tomorrow.

Recommended Bet
Djokovic to beat Murray 2-0 at [1.6]

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JokerDjole | 18 July 2011

Go Djokovic, i love you

Monika