Events / Sean Calvert / 09 May 2011 /

The slow courts of Rome should suit Nadal, who can overcome the disappointment of last week's defeat to Novak Djokovic in Madrid, says Sean Calvert

Last week's advice of backing Novak Djokovic in Madrid proved to be spot on as the Serbinator stormed to the title and rewarded those that were on at the advised price of [5.5].

The tour moves on to Italy this week and the Internazionali BNL d'Italia - commonly known as the Rome Masters 1000 - the last big tournament ahead of the French Open and a final chance for most to tune their clay games ahead of the big one.

Rafa Nadal is a warm order once again and after going out on a limb to back against the Spaniard last week, these slower conditions suit him far better than Madrid and he looks highly likely to claim title number six at a backable [1.9].

Rafa has only lost once here - to Juan Carlos Ferrero in a blister-affected match in 2008 - although he again has a tricky draw with Roger Federer, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych and Thomaz Bellucci the main rivals in his section.

The world number one's likely path to the final is an opening round match against Bellucci (Nadal leads the head-to-head 2-0), which could be a tricky one first up if the Brazilian turns up in the mood, and potentially another clash with Feliciano Lopez, who should have beaten Federer in Madrid.

A quarter-final against Ferrer should follow (14-4 Nadal head-to-head and 10-1 on clay), then maybe another semi against Federer, although it should be noted that Fed has a poor record in Rome.

The Swiss, who can be backed at [17.5] is 19-10 at the Foro Italico and he has posted early losses to Ernests Gulbis, Filippo Volandri, Radek Stepanek and Djokovic in his last four visits, so it's far from certain that Fed will line up for another meet with Rafa in the semis.

Big priced alternatives are scarce in Federer's section, but it could be worth keeping an eye on Gael Monfils at around [130.0], who has reached the semis here before and presuming that he doesn't eat any cheese pre-match like he did in Madrid forcing a bizarre retirement, he is the type to spring up with an unexpected run.

The bottom half of the draw looks to be another good one for Djokovic, who has an excellent 13-3 record at the Foro Italico, with one title and a final in his last three visits.

And after his convincing win over Rafa in Madrid, it looks highly likely that the pair will meet again in another final. If Nole keeps up his incredible form, it's possible that he could claim the number one ranking in the summer - Rafa has already conceded that Djokovic is the number one in real terms right now.

The rivals are streets ahead of the rest at the moment and surely only fatigue can stop another Rafa v Nole championship match this week.

Andy Murray's section, adjacent to the Serb's, looks wide open, with the inconsistent Scot and equally inconsistent Jurgen Melzer being the high seeds.

Murray doesn't have the best of records in Rome, having never bettered the last 16 and with a 2-5 overall win/loss record at the tournament. He has the draw to potentially reach the semis this week, but whether he will is highly questionable.

Nikolay Davydenko was disappointing last week after coming back to form in Munich the week before, but the Russian could well be the one to take advantage of a weak-looking quarter that apart from Murray and Melzer, contains Andy Roddick, John Isner, Gilles Simon, Florian Mayer, Andrey Golubev, Juan Ignacio Chela, Viktor Troicki and Alexandr Dolgopolov.

None of them look title material though and the best play in Rome for my money is to back Rafa, who will enjoy these slower conditions much more than the altitude in Madrid. We could be all set for another classic final though if the top two make it.

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal at [1.9]
Long shot: Davydenko @ [60.0]

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