Events / Sean Calvert / 13 November 2010 /

Monfils faces the Fed and that spells one thing for the Frenchman - the E-N-D.

I said at the start of the BNP Paribas Masters that my three outsiders to follow would be Jurgen Melzer, Ivan Ljubicic and Gael Monfils and the latter takes his place in the semi-finals today.

Having been backed at a high of [60.0] for the outright win in Bercy, the home favourite takes on tournament favourite Roger Federer in the second of today's last four clashes.

Monfils is down to [13.0] to take the trophy in his home event, but is a [6.0] shot to inflict his first ever defeat on Federer in what will be his sixth attempt.

The 'Sliderman' has taken just the one set off the Swiss maestro from the 13 they have played together and their last three encounters have been on Federer's least effective surface of clay.

Today they meet on one of the quickest surfaces in the game and you would have to say that Federer has looked mighty impressive on it so far, with comfortable wins over Richard Gasquet, Radek Stepanek and Melzer.

Other than the second set last night against Melzer, Fed hasn't really been tested, but his serve has been working so well this week that Monfils is going to have to play well above himself to have a chance.

His coach, Roger Rasheed reckons that La Monf has a Grand Slam in him, but I don't agree and if he plays that peculiar brand of negative tennis this afternoon he doesn't have a prayer.

I'm also concerned about his fitness, as he's played two very tough, long matches so far and this could go flat quickly if the Frenchman goes behind early.

The only real reasons that Monfils has a shot here are by riding the wave of emotion handed to him by the partisan crowd and the nagging doubt that Federer has never won the title at the Palais Omnisports.

I still believe that this has to be the end of the road for a drained Monfils though, but there's no value in the [1.2] about Federer in the match betting.

The occasion should make this closer than usual between these two and so the bet in this one is on the handicap, with Monfils + 3.5 games good value at around [2.2].

He could sneak a set, perhaps on a breaker with Fed serving so well, so the 'tie break played' market could be a shout too, but I'll go for the Swiss in a tight two-setter with La Monf sneaking in on the handicap.

Recommended Bet:
Back Gael Monfils +3.5 games @ [2.2]

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