Events / Sean Calvert / 08 November 2010 /

Fresh from tipping up David Ferrer last week, Sean Calvert tells us why Andy Murray and Roger Federer are best swerving this week in a tournament that could once again be won by an outsider.

After the usual post-US Open lunacy, the tennis world returned to normal last week in Basel and Valencia and hopefully you all took my advice to back David Ferrer.

The scurrying Spaniard stormed it in his home town event at a cracking [13.0] and sets us up nicely for the final weeks of the season.

The BNP Paribas Masters 1000 in Bercy, Paris is the last regular event of the season, with just the ATP Tour Finals to follow for the top eight players in the rankings race, and it's famously been a shocker for Roger Federer.

The man regarded by many as the best player of all time has never won the event in Bercy or even come close, with three quarter finals being his best effort.

Last year Fed was taken out by a tearful Julien Benneteau in the first round to give the Swiss maestro a 7-7 win/loss record in the tournament, which by his standards is particularly poor.

It's also the place where Federer scratched for the only time in his career when due to play James Blake in 2008.

The Swiss pulled out that day with a back injury, but still has an unbelievable record compared to someone like a Nikolay Davydenko for example, who has pulled out or retired from 25 matches in his career.

So, it's safe to say that Bercy isn't Fed's favourite venue and with Rafa Nadal withdrawing from the event it leaves Murray and Novak Djokovic in with a great chance this week on paper.

Murray has a great record in Masters 1000 events, with six titles in the last two years and the Scot should certainly be a major player again this week having been placed in Federer's top half of the draw.

However, the Scot's record at the Palais Omnisports is no better than Federer's, with a 6-4 record and he also has failed to advance beyond the last eight in Bercy.

You would also expect Murray to put his remaining energy for the season into his bid for the ATP Finals title in London rather than busting a gut here for no real purpose.

Djokovic is the defending champion here after a stellar end to 2009 and he should go well again if he's got anything left in the tank, with points to defend from last year.

His eyes in all likelihood will be on the Davis Cup final though and it's not really worth risking a decent wager on the Serb under the circumstances.

The other factor to take into consideration here is that this event does tend to throw up some eyebrow-raising winners, with the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and David Nalbandian taking home the trophy in recent years - Tim Henman also won here, as did Greg Rusedksi, so it's a bit of a favourites' graveyard.

The theory that those players in with a chance of qualifying for London are likely to put more of an effort in than some of the others is questionable, but if you believe in it then Jurgen Melzer, Mikhail Youzhny, Fernando Verdasco, Andy Roddick, David Ferrer and Berdych should be on your short list.

I'm certainly going to backing a few long shots this week and given the draw, I reckon there's value to be had in that policy.

In Federer's half, Ferrer and Melzer have chances and of these two I like the claims of Melzer, who took a week off after winning his home event in Vienna. Don't forget this man also beat Nadal in Shanghai.

The Austrian is unlikely to have a better shot at making the Tour Finals and he needs to win this to have a chance, so why not back Melzer at around [80.0].

In Murray's section, former champion Nalbandian and last year's finalist Gael Monfils will fancy another run here, with potential opponents Verdasco and Marin Cilic totally out of sorts.

In the bottom half, Andy Roddick and Robin Soderling are together with Ivan Ljubicic and Youzhny and any of those four could do well, with an in-form Ljubicic no forlorn hope at around [100.0].

The final quarter is Djokovic's and with Berdych and Davydenko in awful form and John Isner not firing, you would expect a semi final spot, at least, for the Serb.

So, to sum up, Djokovic is the best bet of the favourites at around [5.3], but unless you're laying Federer at [3.2], which is certainly not a bad idea, I'd avoid the top few in the betting and go for one of the bigger priced players.

Melzer, Ljubicic and Monfils would be my three in a wide-open BNP Paribas Masters 2010.

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