Australian Open Betting: Tennis needs a new Grand Slam winner

Australian Open Betting / Matthew Walton / 20 September 2011 / 2

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Likely lad? Jo-Wilfried Tsonga looks to be one of the few players with the talent and weapons to break the Nadal/Federer/Djokovic dominance in Grand Slams

"Of course, the counter argument is that Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are simply ‘so good’ they would have dominated any era just like the dominate the current scene. And that might be true. Nobody else can win… because they don’t let them."

It's an incredible stat that outside the holy trinity of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic only three other players on Tour have won a Grand Slam. Lack of strength in depth or just three truly outstanding players, asks Matthew Walton.

In an era when there seems no end to the breaking of ATP Tour records... we stand on the brink of another milestone.

For in the history of the men's game only seven players have won all four Grand Slam titles. Fred Perry and Don Budge achieved the feat in the 1930's, Rod Laver and Roy Emerson matched those exploits in the 60's.

More recently Andre Agassi, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have held a career 'full-house' by winning the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open titles.

Next up... Novak Djokovic. The 24-year-old's recent success in New York added the US Open to his previous wins in London and Melbourne. Only a win in Paris, and the elusive French Open title, are required for the all-conquering Nole to enter the tennis 'Hall of Fame'.

On the back of these achievements, some might say we're living in exceptional times with the men's game never being better. Never has it produced so many great players as it has done in the past few years. It's a 'golden age' for the sport.

Others, however, would disagree. And here's a question to suggest why... how many players can you name, currently active on the ATP Tour, who have won a Grand Slam title..?

Obviously you've got Djokovic, Nadal and Federer for starters. But then it becomes a bit tougher. I'll spot you Juan Martin Del Potro (US Open 2009) but after that there are just three more names to add to the list.

They are... Juan Carlos Ferrero (French Open 2003), Andy Roddick (US Open 2003) and Lleyton Hewitt (US Open 2001 & Wimbledon 2002).

And that's your lot. A grand total of seven players, currently in action on the main tour, who have won a major.

Point being, you must look at the achievements of Djokovic, Nadal and Federer (winners of a staggering 26 of the last 27 Grand Slams) in context of what they had to beat.

What exactly is the strength in depth of the ATP Tour and how does it match up to previous times?

Not particularly well is the answer.

As we've seen, in 2011 only seven players on the tour have won a major... however, go back five years to 2006 and the figure was 12 with multiple champions like Gustavo Kuerten, Marat Safin and Andre Agassi all in action.

Further back... 10 years ago and the figure was in double figures, 10 players, including Pete Sampras, Pat Rafter and Yevgeny Kafelnikov.

Go back 20 years to 1991 and there were 14 Grand Slam winners on tour - Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, Boris Becker, Ivan Lendl, Stefan Edberg, Mats Wilander, Jim Courier...

Of course, the counter argument is that Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are simply 'so good' they would have dominated any era just like the dominate the current scene. And that might be true. Nobody else can win... because they don't let them.

But... there still remains a nagging doubt (emphasised by the recent all-too-familiar SF line-up at Flushing Meadows of Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Murray) that outside of these top players the tour is thin on players of real 'Grand Slam winning quality'.

So who will be the next first time Slam champion?

Well, the Australian Open 2012 presents the next opportunity for a breakthrough winner to come along.

Andy Murray [9.4], twice a runner-up Down Under, is the obvious choice. Then again, what about Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ([40.0]) who made the final in 2008 or David Ferrer ([100.00]) who reached the SF's in 2011.

You've also got other recent Grand Slam finalists like Tomas Berdych ([60.0]) and Robin Soderling ([60.0]) to consider.

Maybe we should look to the younger brigade... Bernard Tomic ([150.0]), Milos Raonic ([150.0]) even Marin Cilic ([100.0]) if he can finally fulfil some of his undoubted promise.

But the problem remains... as the ranking currently stands, with a very dominant top four players, for a new player to win a major they could well have to beat three of the top four players in the world back-to-back... QF, SF and then the final.

Murray of course is the exception, as he would only have to beat two. But he hasn't done it yet!

In other words, the wait continues...

Key Statistic

The last first time Grand Slam winner at the Australian Open was Novak Djokovic (2008). It was Nadal (2005) at the French Open, Federer (2003) at Wimbledon and Del Potro (2009) at the US Open.

Regular tennis analysis, comment and betting advice from Matthew Walton can be found at www.tennis-tipster.co.uk

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CN | 20 September 2011

You can't just use "Grand Slam" winners as a measure of depth. Maybe if Agassi was playing in this era, he may have zero slams.

Some if the current "Non Grand slam" winners may be better than past "Grand slam winners"

The excellence of Federer and Nadal prevented multiple slam winners, it does not mean this era is weak.
Anonymous | 20 October 2011

Don't forget Djoko has only won four grand slams in total.He should not be spoken of in the same terms as Fed who's won 16. He's good but let's see his career total.