Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 27 January 2011 /

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have bitten the dust and Novak Djokovic awaits in the final. This is Andy Murray's best-ever chance of winning a Slam and he's not going to let David Ferrer shatter the dream, says Ben Caudell.

David Ferrer (ESP) v Andy Murray (GBR)

Every year the expectations on Andy Murray to win a Grand Slam tournament are incredibly high. The Brit habitually starts the year as favourite to win the BBC's Sports Personality Of The Year award with 2011 being no different; in fact Murray's nearest rival Jessica Ennis is priced at 11/1.

I'm sure the British press and supporters of Andy Murray will be going crazy at the prospect of reaching a second consecutive Australian Open final, especially now that number one seed Rafael Nadal has been knocked out in straight sets by fellow compatriot David Ferrer, Murray's semi-final opponent.

There's no Roger Federer anymore either and this will no doubt further increase the expectations and high hopes for the world number five to succeed here in Melbourne. But first he must overcome the dogged Spaniard, who leads their head-to-head series 3-2.

All three of Ferrer's wins against Murray have come on the European clay courts, the Spaniard defeated the Brit in both Rome and Madrid during spring of last year in straight sets but succumbed to Murray at the season end finale at the O2 on the faster indoor court, winning a paltry four games. Murray's only other win against the Valencia resident was way back in 2006 at the Toronto Masters which he prevailed in straight sets (6-2 7-6), highlighting the fact that playing on a hard-court surface will definitely be advantageous for the Brit.

The weather conditions in Melbourne this year have been some of the coldest on record; this has meant that the Australian Open court surface has appeared a lot slower than previous years hence the reason why hard hitters such as Roger Federer, Andy Roddick, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, and Robin Soderling have all gone out sooner than anticipated.

Both Andy Murray and Ferrer come into Friday's early morning semi-final bringing outstanding form and similar statistics onto the court; both are undefeated in 2011 with the Spaniard winning the Auckland Open trophy and Murray winning all three Hopman Cup matches. The Brit has won 10 in a row on hard courts, eight in a row in Australia and eight of his last nine when priced as a moderate favourite. Ferrer has won nine in a row on hard, nine in a row in Oceania, but has lost eight in a row when priced as a moderate underdog.

I have a lot of respect for Ferrer and his never-say-die attitude on court. However his style of play is somewhat one-dimensional and lacks both flamboyancy and touch. His game is centred on baseline exchanges and drawing out errors from his opponents. Murray holds way too many weapons in his armoury for Ferrer to trouble his game.
This will be Murray's best chance of winning a Grand Slam so far in his career. No Federer, no Nadal and only Djokovic stands in the way of him becoming the first Brit since Fred Perry in 1936 to win a Grand Slam.

We live in hope...

Recommended Bets:

Back Andy Murray @ [1.3] to win match
Back A Murray 3-0 @ [2.74]
Back Under 30.5 Games @ [6.2]

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