Australian Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 16 January 2010 /

The Boz was up with the larks on Friday morning to catch the Australian Open Women's Tennis draw live. He has been at the form books ever since working out his potential first round shocks. The following are his top five to turn over the odds.

Vania King to beat Dominika Cibulkova priced around [4.5]
The 20-year-old American is the longest priced of my identified potential upsets and also my number one fancy. Her 23rd seed Slovakian opponent has been doing well in the Slams but prefers the clay and has yet to win a Tour title whereas 77th ranked King has the 2006 Bangkok under her belt. It's a tournament she specialises in and she won a three set thriller there over Cibulkova in 2007. All three sets went to tiebreaks and the American showed the greater resolve. She has been in reasonable current form and made quarter-final of Monterrey 2009 and in a battle of the two atom ants, the harder hitting King can prevail again at a stunning price.

Jelena Dokic to beat Alisa Kleybanova priced around [2.6]
This pairing was one of the highlights of Melbourne 2009 with Dokic thrilling the home crowd to win in three sets. There's a serious chance of déjà vu as the 58th ranked Australian struggles to reach her old form overall but shows plenty of class on occasion. Dokic has five tour titles to her name whilst the young Russian 27th seed who is two inches taller and 27 pounds heavier than her opponent has yet to land a single one. Kleybanova does hit hard but can also appear extremely cumbersome to the nimble groundstroke game and I expect the experienced Dokic to know how to go about winning again on the preferred hard court.

Tathiana Garbin to beat Elena Vesnina priced around [2.86]
Experience to overcome youth again. Thirty-two-year-old Italian Garbin has a strong straight sets win over her young Russian seeded opponent at Gold Coast 2007 under her belt (7-5 6-2) and can bridge the current gap in the rankings (62-29) providing she is not overawed by the occasion. Garbin's slam record is not great, never having got past the Melbourne third round in 12 attempts. She has won her first round the past three years though and did rise to a career best 37 in the rankings in 2007. Vesnina is seeded 28 and is at her career high in the rankings aged 23. She has undoubtedly the greater quality capacity but has gone on record citing the Italian as one of her bogey opponents. This could be a game won and lost in the head.

Tamira Paszek to beat Julia Goerges priced around [2.46]
Four years ago, when she won Portoroz as a precocious 15-year-old, Paszek looked a cert to be a top ten player before she was 20. She beat Viktoria Azarenka on her way to the Wimbledon Junior final in 2005 and reached as high as 42 in the rankings as a 17-year-old in 2007.The Austrian has lost her way somewhat since then and is currently ranked 182 which seriously underrates her potential. Still a young talent who needs to conquer the mental aspect of the game, she is a superior player to German Goerges in my mind. They have met once when Paszek won in three sets (6-3 1-6 7-6(4)) and that topsy turvy scoring is typical Paszek. Always a risky bet, I rate her as a value price to overcome what is a very ordinary 76 ranked opponent.

Karolina Sprem to beat Anabel Medina Garrigues priced at [4.5]
Go back to 2004 when 19-year-old Croatian Sprem was ranked 18 in the world and the prices for this pairing would have been very much the other way round. These days it is the 27-year-old Spaniard (seeded 25) who holds sway whilst Sprem languishes in the nether regions ranked a mere 93. Garrigues also has nine tour titles under her belt whereas Sprem simply never kicked on and has still to win one. So, an unlikely shock on the face of recent form. Garrigues won the latest pairing in 2005 but Sprem leads 2-1 overall and has just been seen playing a bit better again of late. Melbourne will be her surface whereas Garrigues - like most Spanish players - excels on the much slower clay courts. Warning, this is very much a Boz left field fancy this one without too much logic to it!

RECOMMENDED BET IS LEVEL STAKES SINGLES all five to show a profit on 2 or more correct.

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