Australian Open Betting / Gary Boswell / 21 November 2011 /

Will Serena Williams win one last Australian Open before she finally calls time on one of the most glittering careers in tennis? Not for Gary Boswell, who has identified the player ready to win the Australian Open and a contender to dominate the women's game.

Can you name the last Australian woman to win the Melbourne tennis Open? Ten points in the pub trivia if you get it right without googling. 1978 was the year and the locals have had to wait 33 long years for another live contender.

Samantha Stosur is [11.5] on Betfair following her crushing win over Serena Williams at Flushing Meadows in September and that looks a price worth taking to me. Perhaps even more tempting is the lay on Serena at [4.0].

The American is an understandable favourite after five wins in the 'noughties' decade. As the dominant woman of her era with 27 Grand Slam titles, she has been difficult to oppose in the big events generally but the injury at the end of 2010 has meant an inconsistent period similar to the one endured in 2004-2006.

Injury is Serena's Achilles but that may not have been what caused the unparalleled collapse in the Meadows final. Hands up if you were one of those who took the [1.2] considering her a shoo-in after the imperious display she gave in dismissing Caroline Wozniacki in the semis.

The key being that due to the rain delays, the final took place just 24 hours after that semi and Serena's legs had no time to recover their match fitness. To say that Stosur blitzed her is an understatement... but it had been coming. Their previous Grand Slam meeting in the 2010 Roland Garros semi had seen an ever-improving Stosur hang in on the Serena strength game to get to 5-6 in the third. Stamina and fitness got her there and she then delivered three of the best games of women's power tennis I ever saw, to win 8-6.

To my mind, Stosur has targeted the Serena game in her quest to get to the top of the women's singles chart. She abandoned the volley/drop shot approach that she perfected as a world no.1 doubles player with Lisa Raymond and developed instead the kick serve and top spin forehand power game that was going to give her a chance of derailing Serena. More tellingly, she employed a little known Olympic softball player called Simmone Morrow to mastermind her fitness regime.

He it is who has developed that imbalanced bicep look and made the forehand cross court pretty much unreturnable.Not yet an all-round champ, Stosur is definitely on the rise and with Petra Kvitova and Li Na also having a breakthrough year in 2011, they are queuing up now to take an ageing Serena on in January's Australian Open. I personally think Serena's time has come.

I predicted Serena's demise before the 2010 Wimbledon and she responded by serving a world record-breaking 89 tournament aces. She won the Bank of West classic this year as the lowest ranked WTA winner ever at 169. She is a dangerous woman to write off and I've been guilty of being premature more than once before. This time however, the [4.0] is way too short. The world's most superstitious sports star is running out of lucky charms and there's an Aussie in the wings poised to end 33 years of hurt!

Recommended Bets

2pt Lay on Serena Williams in the Australian Open winner market at around [4.0]
1pt Back on Samantha Stosur at around [11.5]

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