Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 25 January 2011 /

Ben Caudell is backing the Brit at Melbourne - but what's the best bet?

Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) v Andy Murray (GBR)
Dolgopolov, the world number 46, booked his place in the quarter-finals with a shock win over fourth seed Robin Soderling in five sets to become the first Ukrainian to reach a Grand Slam quarter-final since Andrei Medvedev in 1999.

The unorthodox 22-year-old has risen a record 324 places in the ATP rankings since the summer of 2009.

Previously thought as a clay-court specialist it has become apparent that his style of play is adaptable to all surfaces, judging by the huge strides he has made so far at this year's Australian Open, dispatching of two top seeds, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robing Soderling

Murray, like Dolgopolov is a counter puncher and he is the best in the business at soaking up his opponent's attacking play, The Brit very rarely gives any cheap points away, manages to change the rhythm of play and counter attacks with aggressive precision at clinical moment in a match.

Dolgopolov will find it extremely hard to stay in the points against Murray, I have followed the Ukrainian over the last year and his best results have come against the big hitters, players who go for their shots but have a high unforced error count. He struggles against other counter-punchers such as Murray, grinders, and baseliners such as David Ferrer - a player he lost to twice last year on hard courts.

Murray is in scintillating form, having not dropped a set all tournament and with nine wins in a row on hard court. The Brit leads the head-to-head series against the Ukrainian 1-0, but that came in a Davis Cup match as far back as 2006.

Last year's Australian Open finalist will be the fresher of the two players tonight especially as Dolgopolov's two previous matches have gone all the way to five sets: the Ukrainian has lost six of his last seven against top-ten players and four of his last five when priced as a heavy underdog. For these reasons I am going to back the 5th seed to dismantle his opponent with a clinical straight sets win.

Recommended Bet:
Back Andy Murray 3-0 @ [1.84]


Petra Kvitova (CZE) v Vera Zvonareva (RUS)
Number two seed Vera Zvonareva has beaten three left-handers in Melbourne already, with all wins coming in straight sets. However, she faces the top-ranked lefty in the world here and it will be a whole lot tougher than those early tournament strolls.

Teen sensation Kvitova is vying to reach the second Grand Slam semi-final in what is shaping to be a very promising career.

With quality wins over Flavia Pennetta and home favourite Samantha Stosur in the two previous rounds the momentum is definitely with the Czech, who will surely break into the top ten in the world rankings by the end of the year.

So far this year, Kvitova has won nine matches in a row and has dropped only three sets, she has won five in a row when priced as an underdog and most importantly defeated Zvonareva in Rome last year 6-4, 6-0 to tie the head-to-head series at 1-1.

And if Kvitova serves as well has she has done all tournament she will have a fighting chance against Zvonareva.

The 20-year-old is yet to be broken more than once per match while Zvonareva has been broken nine times. The Russian has looked surprisingly defensive in Melbourne, she will need to play more aggressively against Kvitova, who bases her game on attacking from the off. The value resides with the Czech who is priced at [2.88] in the match odds; therefore I am backing her to make it through to the next round.

Recommended Bets:
Back Over 21.5 Games @ [2.0]
Back Kvitova @ [2.88] to win match

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