Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 28 January 2010 /

Ben Caudell had a good feeling about Jo Wilfried Tsonga before the tournament began and he's seen nothing so far to change his mind. Whatever happens though, we're in for a treat when the enigmatic Frenchman takes on world number one and three time Australian Open champion Roger Federer.

Roger Federer (SWI) v Jo Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)

So who will Andy Murray play in the 2010 Australian Open final on Sunday?

In his quarter-final, 10th seed Tsonga dispatched Novak Djokovic in a thrilling five set epic that lasted three hours and 52 minutes 7-6 6-7 1-6 6-3 6-1. Although Djokovic admitted to not performing at the level he had wanted to in the fourth and fifth set suffering from diarrhea before the match and sickness at the start of the fourth set, you can take nothing away from the Frenchman. He said: "I am stronger, physically stronger than in 2008, I think I have more than one way to play, and this is why I am better."

Against Federer, Tsonga is going to have to play the best tennis of his career to reach the final; Federer is the master when it comes to five set matches, as he showed when going down a set and a break of serve in his quarter-final against Nikolay Davydenko. The Swiss legend can raise his level of play when the chips are down and plant doubts in his opponents' minds.

Tsonga who has played only a handful of five set matches - two of which were in this event - bases his game on strength, power, and aggression. He relies on adrenaline, confidence and the crowd's support, but he is also prone to lapses in concentration and unforced errors.

Although Tsonga often needs to get off to a good start, he fights to the very end. In the most recent meeting between the pair, at last year's Montreal Masters, the match was tied at one set apiece and 5-0 to Federer in the third, when Tsonga managed to somehow claw back from the brink of defeat and win in a tie-break!! (Their head-to-head series is currently tied at 1-1)

I believe that Tsonga will start the match better than Federer. He takes time to get into the rhythm of matches, often hitting unforced errors in the first set. He has so far lost the first set in two of his five matches in this event, one against Igor Andreev in the first round and Nikolay Davydenko in the quarter-finals. Tsonga tends to start full guns-a-blazing; he has won the first set of every match in this event and is currently 11-1 in first sets won.

I will be backing Tsonga from the start in the hope that he wins the first set. Then I will lay my bet off at a shorter price. Tsonga lacks the tenacity to win a best of five set match against Federer but it could be a lot closer than people expect.

Selection: Back Tsonga + 6.5 Games @ [1.9]
Back Tsonga to win the first set @ [3.7]
Back Federer 3-1 @ [3.7]

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