Australian Open Betting / Simon Mundie / 21 January 2010 /

Simon Mundie scrutinises the men's draw to find who can be the last four men standing. And we may see some real upsets on the cards with the likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic missing out...

With the first week well under way, this year's Open is looking tougher to call than for close to a decade. Naturally the 'Big Five' are dominating proceedings as far as the betting goes, but their form isn't so utterly convincing that they can confidently be expected to reach their allotted spots in the draw. With that in mind, an interesting market to explore is the 'Quarter winners', as there is some good value to be found.

In the first quarter, the man expected to secure his last four position is unsurprisingly the world number one Roger Federer ([1.62] to win his quarter). Bearing in mind his quite phenomenal achievement of having reached the last twenty-two Grand Slam semi-finals, here is a man who knows what it takes to perform on the biggest stage, more so than any other player in the history of tennis. However, as the saying goes, all good things must come to an end. Federer has had his problems at the Australian Open in recent years, losing last year's final in tearful fashion, as well as the previous year's semi-finals to Novak Djokovic in three pretty comprehensive sets. Furthermore, he was within touching distance of defeat in the earlier rounds against the likes of Thomas Berdych, Tommy Haas and Janko Tipsarevic.

So the omens are there for a Federer upset, and he didn't look entirely convincing in his first round match, dropping the first set. The man most likely to benefit from any Federer slip-ups is the in-form Nikolay Davydenko [you should be able to get matched at around [3.5]], who has beaten the Swiss maestro in their last two meetings, and has been red hot ever since he won the Masters Cup at the O2 in December. I fancy Federer's Grand Slam run coming to an end, leaving Nikolay Davydenko as the last man standing from the first quarter.

In the second quarter, Novak Djokovic [1.5] would seem to have an easier run of things, although he may have to go through two players capable of scintillating tennis when the mood takes them. Mikhael Youzhny ([4.0]), he of the self inflicted head injuries, could stand in Novak's way in the fourth round, and frankly it's about time he achieved something meaningful at a major, bearing in mind his talent. He can't be counted on however, and the more likely banana skin for the Serb is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at [3.0]. The Frenchman nicknamed 'Ali' produced the best tennis of his career to reach the final here in 2008, losing to Djokovic. Thereafter, however, Tsonga won four straight matches against the Serb, and his game clearly matches up well. I expect them to face off in the quarter-finals, by which time Tsonga's price to be quarter winner will have dropped, at which point he could be worth laying off.

The favourite in the third quarter is US Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro ([2.8]), who survived by the skin of his teeth against James Blake in the second round, and is reportedly nursing an injury. Personally I prefer the look of Andy Roddick at [3.3], who is in fine form having come to Melbourne on the back of a win in Brisbane. He has also looked solid in the early rounds so far, and knows how to do well in Melbourne having reached four semi-finals there during his career. He may have to beat Fernando Gonzalez ([5.6]) in the fourth round, always a dangerous opponent, but his superior head to head against the Chilean suggests it will be the American who would win that tussle. At this stage I would also back him to beat Del-Potro or Cilic ([6.4]) in the quarters.

The final quarter sees the defending champion Rafael Nadal ([1.99]) assume the mantle of favourite to advance, just ahead of Andy Murray ([2.6]). The pressure is on the Spaniard after his heroics here last year, followed by his slump during the second half of the year, and he could struggle against Ivo Karlovic if the big man's serve is functioning at full pelt. Andy Murray has an even trickier proposition, against the most gifted athlete on tour - Gael Monfils [8.4]. Murray has been known to struggle against players of his own generation, and Monfils could easily spring a surprise. The Frenchman could be worth backing ahead of a meeting with Murray, as if he won that encounter his price would tumble, leaving you with the option of laying off before his quarter-final.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Federer to win his quarter @ [1.62]
Back Andy Roddick to win his quarter @ [3.4]
Back-to-lay Gael Monfils to win his quarter @ [8.4]

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