Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 16 January 2010 /

Sean Calvert looks at the draw and pulls out a quartet of gents to get behind

An excellent start to 2010 continued at the Medibank International in Sydney, where my tip Marcos Baghdatis stormed through to the final at the very rewarding price of [15.0].

At the time of writing, Baghdatis is a [2.16] shot in the championship match against Richard Gasquet, but win or lose it was another profitable week, despite David Nalbandian´s withdrawal from the Heineken Open with an injury that has put him out of the Australian Open.

Speaking of which, it´s time for the first Slam of the season and as ever there are ample opportunities for increasing our already bulging coffers in Melbourne.

Starting from the top then and Roger Federer will be looking to put last year´s tearful finale behind him and the Swiss maestro´s recent in-and-out form has led to his price reaching a very backable [4.0], which is surely worth a sizeable back-to-lay wager.

Each and every year we hear the same old tired comments about Fed being on the decline, but he always pulls it out in the big ones and 20-odd Slam semi-finals on the bounce speaks for itself.

The world number one has Igor Andreev in the first round, which may have posed a problem a year or so ago, but the Russian has looked a shadow of his former self of late and Fed should ease through to find Lleyton Hewitt, Baghdatis and Fernando Verdasco in his way, ahead of a likely last eight meet with Nikolay Davydenko.

Davydenko has beaten Federer in the pair´s last two meetings, but I don´t read too much into that, as Federer has that different gear that he always find at Slams and Davy has always struggled on the pacy Melbourne surface.

The world number six has never made it past the quarters here and I don´t expect him to better that in 2010. I fancy Verdasco to perhaps be the one to make the last eight ahead of Davy.

I can see Fed racking up yet another Slam semi, where he will probably face Novak Djokovic, who suddenly found his form at the back end of 2009 and who has as close to a dream draw as you´re ever likely to find in a Slam.

The Serb has just injured duo Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to contend with and very little else. At around [9.4], Djokovic is a cracking back-to-lay prospect.

The 2008 champion was unplayable in November and December and on that form at a venue where he has good memories, he should be the one to test Federer once more.

The only outsider worthy of a mention in that section would be a resurgent Gasquet, but it´s asking a lot for him to go close in his first Slam back after his ban.

The third section is wide open with Andy Roddick, Fernando Gonzalez, Juan Martin Del Potro, Marin Cilic the main contenders for a semi final spot.

I´m holding a back of Cilic from last year and for my money the Croatian is the best outsider in the field and still worth a few quid at around [50.0].

He confirmed his improving form and mental strength by retaining his Chennai title and with Del Potro reportedly struggling with a wrist injury, Cilic could be the one to be on, providing the returning Fabrice Santoro doesn´t have one more shock left in him in their first round clash.

Gonzalez is always worth a bet at a big price and I would place him as a live contender in that section also, as he is lightly worked these days and comes here fresh and with the courts in his favour.

The final section is that of the defending champion Rafa Nadal and Brit hope Andy Murray and I have a sneaking feeling that the Scot might come out on top if the pair face-off in the quarters, as they are seeded to do.

Nadal has shown signs of life after a miserable last six months of 2009, but I don´t see him being at the same level as 12 months ago and Murray may have circumstances in his favour this time.

In 2009, the Scot was all the rage in terms of the odds and failed to handle it. This time, his low profile warm-up has created lower expectations and I take Murray to make the last four rather than the Spaniard.

I don´t see him having enough to win in Melbourne, but a bet on Murray to beat Nadal is one that I will probably invest in if it happens.

Recommendations:
Back Federer at around [4.0]
Back-to-lay Djokovic at around [9.4]
Best outsiders - Cilic [50.0] and Gonzalez [190.0]

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