Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 13 January 2012 /

Novak Djokovic is still very much the man to beat but he's short enough in the betting and there are a few concerns about each of the other members of the Big Four. All of which opens the door for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to come to the party, says Sean Calvert.

The first Grand Slam of 2012 is upon us already and the draw has been made, so let's see what it tells us about who is likely to be holding the men's singles title in a fortnight's time.

As has become the norm in tennis lately, the run-up to Melbourne has been dominated by talk of injuries, with Rafa Nadal, Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro and Jo Wilfried Tsonga all suffering in one way or another - and we've only been playing for two weeks of the year so far!

Rafa's various ailments have led to him taking some time off after Melbourne and his price has drifted accordingly, but don't let that fool you too much, there's not really a tournament that suits his game in February anyway (unless you count the Golden Swing that he rarely plays).

I don't fancy Rafa to add a second Australian Open title to his list of achievements this fortnight at around [8.0], but don't be surprised if he shrugs off the supposed lack of fitness and runs around like the proverbial spring chicken.

If I were backing Rafa, I'd be more concerned about his lack of form than anything else, as he has reached just one final since the damaging US Open Final loss to Djokovic. He's switched to a heavier racquet in an effort to serve bigger, so let's see what affect, if any, that will have.

The world number two has a few veterans in his quarter, with Tommy Haas, Ivan Ljubicic, Nikolay Davydenko and David Nalbandian among the names that might be too long in the tooth to worry Nadal these days.

John Isner and Tomas Berdych could cause him problems, but I expect Rafa to come through to a rare Slam semi final against Federer, or possibly Del Potro.

Federer is the master at managing his schedule so that he avoids injuries, but for only the second time in his career, he withdrew from a match last week, citing a back problem. And the Swiss has hardly been bullish about his chances since then.

Again, I suspect this is more a matter of protecting a potential problem than anything else and he hasn't failed to reach at least the semi finals here since way back in 2003, so you should get a good run for your money on Fed at [5.7].

The Swiss maestro won't mind his draw too much, with Bernard Tomic and Alexandr Dolgopolov possible dangers, followed by either Del Potro or Mardy Fish later.

Djokovic comes into this event in the best shape of the top three and seemed to have put his late season injury woes behind him in the only glimpse we've had of the Serbian this year - in the United Arab Emirates, when he blitzed the field in an exhibition.

He looked back to his best and the world number one is the clear form pick, but there are some doubts to put me off the short-looking [2.5] currently on offer about Nole.
The main reason for this is that it's one thing having a record-breaking year, but another trying to retain all of those titles and points from last year with the pressure on from some stellar opposition.

Another is his fitness, which hasn't really been proven despite that knockabout in the UAE. His break should have done him some good, but is he fit and match sharp?

The champion's draw is a plus though, with Milos Raonic, David Ferrer, Andy Roddick, Janko Tipsarevic, and Radek Stepanek the main opposition.

In the adjacent half, what of Andy Murray's chances in a tournament that he's reached the final in twice in two years?

With Ivan Lendl in the camp you would have to assume that his chances increase with a guy in his corner who has seen it and done it, but how much information can one impart in a few short weeks?

Not enough, you would think, and Murray's draw in the same quarter as Tsonga and the same half as Djokovic means that I can't see him making a third consecutive final in Melbourne.

The Scot also has an interesting first rounder against up and coming American, Ryan Harrison and a likely match with Gael Monfils later on.

But I like the chances of Tsonga in that quarter and at around [22.0] the big Frenchman is the best value investment in the men's draw.

The former Australian Open finalist has been in great touch lately and seems to have added a bit of mental toughness to his game in the last few months. His withdrawal from Kooyong citing exhaustion doesn't concern me too much, as he's had more than enough preparation.

He looks like he belongs in the big league at the moment and if he's ever going to win a Slam, this looks to be his best chance. With doubts over the top four this fortnight, why not take a chance on the big man at a big price?

Recommended Bet

Back Tsonga at [22.0]

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