Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 14 January 2011 /

The debilitating heat of Melbourne isn't a handicap for Andy Murray anymore but his record here is generally poor and his exit may come sooner rather than later. The man to side with though, is Rafael Nadal.

The draw has been made for the 2011 Australian Open amidst the persistent rain of Melbourne and presuming the weather holds, we're set for a fortnight of late nights and gripping tennis.

For once Roger Federer hasn't been handed an absolute gimme of an early draw, with the talented Lukas Lacko first up, followed by the in-form Gilles Simon and either Chennai finalist, Xavier Malisse, or Albert Montanes next.

That's more testing than Fed usually gets and he would then face possibly Sam Querrey or more likely Mardy Fish, with an adjacent quarter of Andy Roddick, Gael Monfils and Stan Wawrinka to follow.

I like the latter two at [100.0] and [300.0] respectively as long shots. Monfils's coach, Roger Rasheed has been bullish about the Frenchman's form lately and since splitting with his wife, Wawrinka has been in great form, winning in Chennai and focussing on fitness.

The second quarter in that half of the draw sees a host of big names, including Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, Fernando Verdasco, Nikolay Davydenko, Richard Gasquet and the in-form Viktor Troicki.

You have to like Djokovic's chances in that section and at around [12.0] it's worth chancing that the cooler weather that's been around lately will play into his hands and give him a big chance in a potential semi final with Federer.

The ailing Rafa Nadal meanwhile will have enjoyed looking at his draw, having been paired with no-one that will worry him in his quarter.

That's assuming Nadal has overcome that bout of flu, of course, which might concern his backers, but if he's fit the Spaniard should win and is the bet at around [3.0]

In the adjacent quarter, Andy Murray's choice of playing in the totally pointless Hopman Cup meant that he dropped to five in the world rankings and he must now beat the man who took number four, Robin Soderling, along with Nadal and then probably Federer or Djokovic to win the title.

Personally, I think there's more chance of Ricky Ponting being voted Australian Man of the Year than Murray winning in Melbourne this year and his price has shunted out to [10.5] as a result of the draw.

The Scot's only chance is if Nadal is struggling with illness or injury, while Soderling is no value at all at around [20.0] at a venue where he's never been past the second round and he lost to Marcel Granollers in the first round last year - one of three first round
exits in five visits.

Along with Sod and Murray, there's Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jurgen Melzer, Ernests Gulbis, Marcos Baghdatis, and Juan Martin Del Potro in that section, so it's no certainty that the number four and five seeds will play each other in the last eight.

The quarter winner market could prove interesting, with Murray a lay at around [1.86] in his section.

The Scot reached the final last year of course, but otherwise he has failed to better the last 16 in Melbourne, with two first round defeats and he's so unpredictable these days that it wouldn't be conducive to your health to back him at short odds to make the semis.

Despite his occasional brilliance, Murray has failed to reach the semi finals in 16 of his 20 Grand Slams, so [1.86] looks incredibly skinny that he will this time.

If you believe that Federer is due an early loss in a Slam - he has only been beaten before the semi final stage twice in the last 26 Slams - then you'll want to lay the [1.25] that he emerges as winner of the fourth quarter.

The Swiss did lose twice before the semi final stage last season, but you'd essentially be backing Roddick, Monfils, Wawrinka, Fish or a total wild card to beat him early.

If you're looking for a bit of quick interest on that Christmas money from the family, you surely can't go wrong with the [1.17] on the 'Big Four Versus the Field' market.

Whilst it's true to a degree that the Australian Open is the most unpredictable of the Slams, that's not saying much really and most of the shock winners came before Federer and Nadal came on the scene.

One of the current 'Big Four' of Fed, Rafa, Murray and Djokovic have won 23 of the last 25 Slams (with no assistance from Murray thus far), with just Del Potro's US Open win of 2009 and Marat Safin's win here in 2005 being the exception.

Del Potro's win wasn't a shock, based on his form at the time, and there's no-one of that ilk in the tournament right now, so a 17 percent return on a near-certainty makes financial sense to me.

Bets for the shortlist:

Nadal to win at [3.0]
Lay Murray to win quarter two at [1.86]
Big four versus the field: Yes at [1.17]

Best value outsiders to follow:

Gael Monfils at [100]
Viktor Troicki at [260]
Stan Wawrinka at [300]
Marcos Baghdatis at [320]

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