Australian Open Betting / Guy McCrea / 16 January 2010 /

Serena Williams has won the Australian Open four times - but the world number one has never defended her title in Melbourne before. Guy McCrea considers if Serena can do it this time.

Four reasons to back her...

* Something to prove

History shows that this is when Serena (currently priced on Betfair at around [4.7] favourite to defend the Australian Open) is at her most dangerous. This time, there is a need to redeem her reputation after the on-court indiscretions at the US Open - not from her own perspective, but to many critical fans worldwide. The easiest way to make everyone forget those 30 seconds of fury on Ashe is to defend her Australian Open title. In this regard, no player can channel their ire into two weeks of focused aggression quite like Serena can. Just remember her US Open quarter-final defeat to Jennifer Capriati in 2004, where Serena felt a contentious decision by the chair umpire turned the match against her. She then bounced back emphatically in the next Grand Slam event, to win the 2005 Australian Open.

* Recent form

Serena's injury-affected defeat to Elena Dementieva ([16.0] to win the Australian Open) in the Sydney International final was her first since October. Until then Serena had won ten of her previous 11 matches on hard court to sit once again at number one in the world rankings. With the Australian Open also played on her favoured hard courts, Serena is in a great state of form and mind to achieve a successful Melbourne title defence for the first time.

* The draw

This looks to have worked out very well for the top seed. Victoria Azarenka ([38.0] to win in Melbourne) is Serena's likely quarter-final test, although the young Belarussian has yet to prove herself at Grand Slam level. With Caroline Wozniacki ([24.0]) or sister Venus ([17.5]) likely to be waiting in the last four, it means she can only meet Kim Clijsters ([4.9]) or Justine Henin ([7.0]) in the final itself. Her Sydney conqueror Dementieva is also in the other half. Serena would have bitten your hand off for a draw like this!

* Billie Jean King

Serena currently has 11 Grand Slam singles titles, and so sits seventh on the all-time list of female Grand Slam singles champions - but with little chance realistically in the rest of her career to reach the record mark held by Margaret Court ([24.0]). But if she can make a successful title defence in Melbourne, Serena would draw level on 12 Slams with one of her childhood idols - fellow American tennis legend Billie-Jean King. The opportunity to do just that will give Serena further motivation to succeed in Melbourne.

And four reasons to swerve Serena

* Fitness fears

She clearly struggled with a sore left knee during her Sydney final defeat to Dementieva. Serena now has just days to recover before a first round match against Poland's Urzula Radwanska. Even if as expected she wins that one, can we really be certain that her body is in the right shape to handle the ultimate test - seven matches over two weeks in the Melbourne heat?

* Belgian blockade

The draw dictates that Serena can only face one of Clijsters or Henin, and only then in the final. But the American will be aware that is a real possibility. The line judge drama at Flushing Meadows actually overshadowed the fact that Serena struggled to live with Clijsters' power and precision that night. With only one event played in her comeback, Henin is slightly more unlikely to be waiting in the final should Serena get there. But as Clijsters proved in New York, it's not impossible - and Serena has had more than her fair share of defeats to the petite Belgian in the past (Serena only leads their head-to-head 7-6; perhaps more significantly, Henin has won four of their six clashes at Grand Slam level).

* Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown

Serena has never successfully defended the Australian Open title before in three previous attempts. In fact, the American has only ever made one successful defence of a Grand Slam singles title - when she repeated at Wimbledon in 2003. Proof once again that it is a tough task looking for repeat success at a Slam.

* It just ain't her year

All of Serena's four Australian Open titles have come in odd-numbered years - 2003, 2005, 2007 and most recently, last season. For those superstitious stat-lovers out there - this one's for you!

So, to back her or not?

Much rests on whether the left knee problem that Serena picked up in the Sydney final continues to trouble her through the fortnight. But she has carried minor ailments into Grand Slam events before and still managed to hold the trophy aloft two weeks later. Given a draw that allows her to play her way into the tournament, and with a point to prove after all the fall-out from that night in New York, Serena is worth backing at [4.7] to defend her Australian Open title for the first time and further cement her place as one of the true greats of women's tennis.

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