Australian Open Betting / Ralph Ellis / 11 January 2011 /

Fifth seed and third favourite Andy Murray reached the final of last year's Australian Open. Ralph Ellis sees plenty of obstacles in the way of a successful Melbourne run for the Brit this time around.

In the old days seedings for tennis tournaments were done by men in blazers behind closed doors. The committee was all powerful. Now it's the computer that rules, as Andy Murray is about to find out.

Finalist at the Australian Open last year; ending last season in superb form; lots of positive vibes coming from his annual Miami fitness trip; unbeaten in three Hopman Cup matches. He ticks all the boxes to be seeded three for Melbourne on Monday, and the old guys in the dusty committee room would surely have put him there just behind the twin powers of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. Certainly that's how Betfair's punters see it, making the British number one the clear third favourite for the first Grand Slam event of 2011 at [9.4].

But, as that Little Britain character would say: "Computer says no." Murray is actually down to five in the world rankings and that's where he'll be seeded. It's new for him. The same thing happened last season and he defied it then to reach the final even if it ended in tears after Federer wiped him away. But this time it may be more of a problem because there are other, bigger dangers lurking.

Murray dropped down a place because while his Hopman Cup adventures carried no ranking points, Robin Soderling was winning the Brisbane International. The quality of the Swede's serving in the final against Andy Roddick gave notice he'll have chances at the one Grand Slam tournament where he's never previously blossomed, making him possibly the big value bet at [20.0].

Three years after he shocked everybody to win the title, word is that Novak Djokovic is looking fit and, more importantly, relaxed, as if he's finally coming to terms at the age of 23 with the mental demands of playing at the top of the game. "For some reason mentally I destabilised, but you have to stand up and say: 'OK Now I really want to get back'. I have the qualities that I need to do it," he tells The Times in an interview this morning.

Then there's another wild card - not quite literally but you get the idea - in the giant figure of Argentinian Juan Martin del Potro. Down to below 250 on the world rankings after a year out with a wrist injury, the 22-year-old got his place at Melbourne thanks to the protected ranking system. He's started his comeback Down Under with a three set first round victory over Feliciano Lopez that answered some important questions about his fitness. If he can come straight off that to beat Germany's Florian Mayer tomorrow night it will be proof he's a genuine threat.

Del Potro is a juicy [55.0] in the betting, and worth a fun flutter at that because from a floating position in the draw he will be the one player none of the big boys want to meet in the early rounds. Certainly Murray won't. He's now got the worry he could find as many as three recent Grand Slam winners between him and the trophy he so nearly won a year ago. Computer says: "Oh dear".

Five things you might not know about Robin Soderling

1. Born August 1984 in the tiny Swedish furniture making town of Tibro, his dad Bo is a lawyer

2. He was five when his mum Britt-Inge started taking him and older sister Sandra to tennis lessons. She wasn't so keen and is now a teacher.

3. He's a top table tennis player but also goes fishing for a calmer way to relax away from tennis

4. He's friends with Swedish tennis legend Bjorn Borg and helped promote his underwear range

5. He speaks Swedish, English and German, and now lives in Monte Carlo.

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