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Australian Open Betting: Can Henin repeat the Belgian comeback trick?

Australian Open Betting RSS / / 26 January 2010 /

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Australian Open Betting

"There is little doubt in my mind that as a 27-year-old, Henin has developed an all round game that makes her the genuine contender to be the number one player of her era."

Gary Boswell believes that Justine Henin might be the greatest player of her generation. The Belgian has looked good in Melbourne but with the Williams sisters likely to be waiting in the later rounds, is she a good bet to win the tournament?


The Belgian queen of tennis - undisputed world number one player in the two years prior to her shock retirement - is now just two games away from repeating what compatriot Kim Clijsters did at Flushing Meadow and winning her comeback Slam.

She has a serious gimme semi-final against the unseeded Jie Zheng and is arguably a decent price at [1.27] to win that. She could not have hoped for an easier run to the final stages, with Elena Dementieva her only top 10 opponent, and the lack of a serious test so far might be her only worry. She's likely to get one in the final with both Williams sisters firm favourites to come through their quarter-finals tonight.

Henin is now [2.98] in the outrights having been matched early in the tournament at double figures and those who trusted her must seriously be looking at the value of hedging out either now or as we approach the final.

The worries for that final would be the strapping that now covers both ankle and thigh. She doesn't seem significantly restricted but we saw with Safina how injuries can suddenly become acute and carrying a niggle is not going to help when there's a Williams on the other side of the net. Henin also has poor head to head records against both Venus and Serena. A distinctive 1-5 down against Venus and 6-7 against Serena but the thing that stat doesn't portray is the current form and the breakthrough that Henin made beating both sisters en route to the US Open title in 2007. Prior to that she had success against both only on the clay courts and there is little doubt in my mind that as a 27-year-old, she has developed an all round game that makes her the genuine contender to be the number one player of her era.

She still hasn't won Wimbledon of course and that is reputedly why she is back from retirement. I developed a theory from her capitulation at the tournament in 2007 that she was having trouble with her eyesight. She has been photographed in her early years in spectacles and in her semi-final defeat against Marion Bartoli that she kept missing the same line by the same margin over and over. As a lifelong glasses wearer myself I recognised that occasional 'loss of the line' that also haunts snooker and darts professionals. I've watched out for it with Henin ever since.

I made a buck from opposing her in play that day but I've been backing her in Melbourne because there is no-one on the circuit now who displays the same matchplay mastery as Henin. There is no deterioration in the champion's finding a way to win. She intelligently works out a method to beat each opponent.

Against Kleybanova, with thighs stiff from the Dementieva workout, she played from centre court and concentrated on hitting hard. Against Wickmayer, her sliced topspin backhand had commentator Sam Smith dredging up the snow shovel metaphor, so low was Wickmayer having to lean to dig out her shots.

Against Petrova in the quarters, she won a scrappy mind game by playing a great deal of net tennis. Preparation for that elusive Wimbledon title perhaps?

What impresses me most about Henin is the way she puts such depth on her desperate get back shots. It's never just a case of getting it back any old how, she makes sure that the next shot will not be a gimme for her opponent. Her mental toughness makes her my favourite to win this tournament so long as those leg muscles problems don't scupper her.

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