ATP Tour Finals Betting / Sean Calvert / 16 November 2011 /

Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Jo Wilfried-Tsonga and Mardy Fish contest Group B and fitness, form and pedigree point towards it being Federer who tops the group.

The best tennis players in the world will converge upon London's O2 Arena this weekend as the 2011 ATP World Tour Finals begin.

Continuing my guide to the contenders, I take a look at the prospects of the stars that make up Group B.

Rafa Nadal

After winning his opening round in the AEGON Championships at Queen's Club in London in June, the world number two qualified for this event for the seventh consecutive year. In a season where Djokovic has become Rafa's nemesis in a similar fashion to the way Rafa himself has been to Roger Federer over the years, Nadal managed to post a 66-13 win/loss record for 2011, with a 15-9 record against top-10 opponents.

But this has been far from a vintage year for the Spaniard, with only three titles to his name - his worst return on tour since 2004. He's reached the quarter finals or better in Grand Slams 21 times and the last nine in a row and he arrives at the O2 having not played since losing to Florian Mayer in Shanghai last month. So he comes here a little rusty, with one eye on the Davis Cup Final and with only one indoor title in his career. He's also yet to lift the year end championship crown - his best effort being his loss in the final to Federer 12 months ago. Although the indoor courts are far from his favourite surface, Nadal will not be easy to beat. He's also beaten Tsonga in both of their matches on indoor hard which is significant.

Best Bet: Back Nadal to beat Tsonga in their Group B match at [1.5]

Roger Federer

The new BNP Paribas champion comes into the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in prime form, having won Basel and Bercy indoors after a break from the tour following the US Open. The Swiss champ was the fourth man to qualify for London and did so when he reached the fourth round of the US Open this summer.

He has a great record in the end of season event, with five titles from nine attempts, and also has 13 career titles on indoor hard-courts (not including those on carpet). Fed has made the quarter finals or better of Grand Slams an incredible 30 consecutive times and on 34 occasions in total, but this year will be his worst return for titles since 2002, if he fails to win at the O2. His win/loss match record this season reads 59-12, but he has lost nine of his 14 matches against top-10 ranked players in 2011, which is at odds with his career record of 140-73 versus top tenners. But he showed 12 months ago that he enjoys the surface at the O2 and in his current form, he's the man to beat.

Best Bet: Back Federer to win Group B at [1.8]

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

The big Frenchman qualified for the Final Showdown by reaching the quarter final in Bercy last week, where he went on to lose to Federer in the final.

It will be Tsonga's second time at the year end tournament, following his debut in 2008 in China when two losses and a win saw him fail to qualify from his group. Tsonga posted a 52-22 win/loss record in 2011, the highlight of which was two tournament wins, both on indoor hard, in ATP 250 events.

Five of his seven career titles have been achieved on indoor hard, including his only Masters 1000 title in Bercy in 2008, so the surface at the O2 should suit him. He has reached the quarter finals or better in six Grand Slams from 17 starts and his record against top-10 opposition this year is seven wins from 18 matches, which is roughly the same as his career mark of 22 wins from 52 matches. Tsonga will be a danger to all in the group stages and the Betfair Contrarian has made a decent case for him winning the whole thing. But for me it's a big ask to beat Federer and Nadal just to qualify.

Best Bet: Back Tsonga to beat Fish in their Group B match at [1.8]

Mardy Fish

America's number one player, Mardy Fish, qualified for the O2 for the very first time at the age of 29 when he defeated Florian Mayer in Bercy, but his participation in London is in doubt after retiring one round later.

Fish suffered a recurrence of a hamstring problem against Juan Monaco in Paris and alternate, Janko Tipsarevic, looks likely to see some action with Fish and Djokovic creaking. Hopefully, Mardy's fine achievement of making the top eight best players in the world after a career largely spent in or around the top-50 won't be in vain.

He has reached the last eight or better in three of his 35 Grand Slams and he has a career mark against top-10 opponents of 23-43, with a similar 3-6 mark in 2011. Indoor hard doesn't rank as his best surface, with one title way back in 2003 in Stockholm his only win indoors. Fish has posted a 43-22 win/loss mark with the retention of his hard-court title in Atlanta his sole tour level win of the year. It would be a daunting prospect to qualify from this group for a fully fit Fish, and I certainly can't see him doing it carrying an injury.

Best Bet: Lay Fish to qualify from Group B at around [5]

Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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