ATP Tour Finals Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 15 November 2011 /

The Betfair Contrarian is at it again, this time arguing why outsider Jo Wilfried-Tsonga, in only his second appearance at the end of year event, is about to go all the way next week.

The top eight players in the men's game are heading to London later this month to fight for the final singles honour of 2011. One of the stars of Wimbledon, the charismatic Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, is the most fancied entrant besides the long-standing top four. Yet while odds of [23.0] rate him far less likely to light up the O2 Arena than his more illustrious rivals, the Contrarian has faith in his ability to spring a surprise. Here's why...

Tsonga is having a great campaign...

After bursting onto the scene at the 2008 Australian Open, injuries halted Tsonga's progress for a while, but a run without medical interruption has given the 26-year-old a chance to shine. The five finals he has reached in 2011 mark a career best and superb showings at Wimbledon and the US Open saw him make it to the last eight of successive Grand Slams for the first time, indicating a previously absent consistency.

...and he has loved it in London

Few men beat Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the same year, let alone in the same month in the same city. But that's what Tsonga achieved in his run to the final of the AEGON Championship and the Wimbledon semi-finals, in addition to taking sets off Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. The style and spirit of his displays helped him further cement his status as a crowd favourite in the capital and if Murray underwhelms, as he has in his three other World Tour Finals appearances, Tsonga can expect even greater support.

There are doubts over the top dogs...

Djokovic [(5.8)] spent the first nine months of 2011 making history, but since claiming his third Grand Slam of the year at Flushing Meadows, his form has tailed off and fitness has been an issue. Unsurprisingly perhaps given the level that he performed at earlier in the season. Nadal, who has never won this event, is in a similar situation - as reflected by odds of [6.6] - while Murray ([4.0]) was Mr Momentum with three straight titles before being derailed by Tomas Berdych in Paris. Federer ([3.3]) is enjoying a strong end to the year with his Paris Masters title on the back of his Basel win the week before. Yet he is not the fearsome force he once was and has been victorious in this competition in only one of the last three years, compared to four of the five before that.

...and Tsonga has a great record against them

The big problem for so many promising talents in men's tennis is the level of deference that they afford those at the top of the rankings when they collide, but Tsonga has never had that problem. The Frenchman has defeated all four and has sent them all home from Grand Slam events before, conquering three of the quartet in the high-pressure environment of quarter-finals or semi-finals. He boasts a 5-4 head-to-head advantage over current world number one Djokovic, beat Nadal in London at Queen's Club earlier in the year and has won two of his last four meetings with Federer, including the most high-profile of the lot at Wimbledon, from two sets down - a position that the Swiss legend had never previously failed to triumph from at a Grand Slam.

Upsets do occur in the World Tour Finals

With the exception of the period between 2003 and 2007 in which Federer was often untouchable, this has been a pretty unpredictable tournament, with just two of 12 top seeds winning either side of that spell. There have been some major shocks in recent years, including sixth seed Nikolay Davydenko being crowned two years ago and eighth seed David Nalbandian stunning a Federer at the peak of his powers in Tsonga-style fashion in 2005.

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