AEGON Championships Betting / Sean Calvert / 06 June 2011 /

They renamed it a couple of years ago - many of us still think of it as Queen's - and it signals the beginning of the grass court season. There are question marks over the energy levels and motivation of the hot favourites so it may pay to look elsewhere, says Sean Calvert.

The clay court season is over after a wonderful French Open final in which my tip of a 3-1 Rafa Nadal win proved to be spot on at around [4.0].

But there's no time to rest for us or for the world's top stars as they head off for the grass-court season.

For most of the big names, this means a trip to London for this week's AEGON Championships at Queen's Club, where the betting favourite is Nadal at around [4.0].

Nadal is also number one seed and he has a decent record at Queen's, with one title and three quarter finals to his name, but after his efforts in Paris I doubt whether he'll be busting a gut to win this.

He also has history against him, as only Rafa himself (in 2008) and Ilie Nastase (1973) have ever won the French Open and Queen's Club in the same year.

Rafa also has a few guys in his section of the draw that can play on grass and after losing to a leftie in Feliciano Lopez here last year, he might not fancy taking on Michael Llodra in the quarter finals.

Barring Llodra's way is fellow Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is surely more effective over the shorter matches these days, owing to the tendency of his body to break down over the longer distances.

Tsonga has the game for grass and has had some pretty decent results on the surface, so with the likes of Ivan Ljubicic, Radek Stepanek and Ryan Harrison all in Rafa's section, it could be an interesting one.

The adjacent quarter to Nadal's looks wide open with defending champion, Sam Querrey, Stan Wawrinka, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Gilles Simon the leading lights.

Querrey has performed poorly all year, with one quarter final his best showing in 2011, but he might perk up this week, while Del Potro has not been a fan of grass so far in his career.

Whether the Argentine at [8.0] has the inclination to improve on the surface remains to be seen, but it's hard to see him popping up and winning this week given his results on grass so far.

Simon and Wawrinka have hardly set the world on fire on the grass either, with the Swiss at least posting a couple of fourth round finishes at Wimbledon, but on the whole that section it trappy and it's not impossible that someone like Kei Nishikori, Rainer Schuettler
or Denis Istomin could progress.

In the bottom half, the withdrawal of Novak Djokovic means that Andy Murray is number two seed, with Andy Roddick at number three.

The American has won this event four times, but not since 2007. However, he is well-rested after not bothering with the French Open or, let's be honest, any of the other clay events this year.

A shoulder injury was cited for his Roland Garros withdrawal, but there was surely half an eye on the grass season involved in that decision.

His section has some interesting names in it, including David Nalbandian, himself returning from injury, along with Nicolas Mahut, Dmitry Tursunov, Ivo Karlovic and Lopez, who can all play on grass.

As well as the above, there's also Kevin Anderson and Fernando Verdasco, so that could be a tough section for Roddick, who is available to back at around [8.0].

Nalbandian is interesting on his return after surgery and apparently a virus that caused him to lose weight - I'll believe the latter part of that when I see it!

The Argentine does have a good record on grass and reached the semis
in his only appearance here in 2008 (lost to Djokovic), but interestingly he hasn't played a match on the surface for three years.

He's not one to rely on, but could be a decent back-to-lay bet at around [40.0].

As for Murray, well, he's got the easiest draw of anyone, with only Marin Cilic, Janko Tipsarevic and Xavier Malisse and Nottingham finalist, Mattias Bachinger, with any sort of form on grass in his section.

Murray is vulnerable with his suspect ankle though and he will be tired anyway after his best effort on the dirt of Paris, so we could see an unfancied quarter finalist from that section.

To sum up, I don't fancy any of the top four in the betting at their prices, so your back to lay shortlist should include the likes of Nalbandian [40.0], Tipsarevic [70.0], Querrey [36.0], Tsonga [21.0] and Llodra [40.0].

Recommended bets:

Back to lay Llodra at around [40.0] and Tsonga at around [21.0]

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