/ Graham Cunningham / 09 April 2010 /

As the world turns its attention to the Grand National, Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham is taking nothing for granted after Mon Mome's 100-1 shocker last year. Read his eight-point plan for the best bets.

1. Niche Market [29.0] has been high on my National short list for weeks now and I see no reason to change tack now. There's no fancy story with Bob Buckler's gelding, he's just a thorough stayer who jumps very well overall and a repeat of the form he showed to finish placed in the Hennessy at Newbury and the Aon Chase at the same venue will give him clear win and place potential.

2. If Big Fella Thanks [11.0] wins, I lose. It's not that I have a massive downer on this gelding. After all, he's ahead of the handicapper after showing improved form over two-and-a-half miles at Newbury and he ran very well until the last fence 12 months ago. However, BFT is trading at a very short price considering he faces 39 viable rivals and 30 daunting fences. In short, even with the magical Ruby aboard he isn't for me.

3. Dessie Hughes suffered a depressing experience when one of his stable stars was killed at Aintree on Friday, but fortune can turn on its head very swiftly and Vic Venturi [38.0] lines up with very strong claims based on his Becher Chase success here and a highly impressive Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last time. The official handicapper feels he is very well treated from his present mark. I fully agree with him.

4. He bolted clear from the last 12 months ago to win in commanding fashion with no semblance of fluke, so why do I think Mon Mome [17.0] will struggle this time around? In short, because he's unlikely to enjoy the dream trip he found up the inside under Liam Treadwell last year and the form he seemed to show when snatching third from way back in the Gold Cup could flatter him. Lots of people will be backing him to win. I suspect I will be laying him for a place.

5. Timmy Murphy has chosen Comply Or Die [27.0] instead of the heavily-backed The Package and I suspect he has made the right call. Granted, it was always going to be tough to desert a horse who has finished first and second in the last two Nationals, but Comply Or Die is simply a very potent force around Aintree and I thought he showed more than enough to suggest the fire still burns at Cheltenham last month. He's highly likely to jump accurately on the outside and run another cracker.

6. Graham Lee gave Amberleigh House one of the all time great National rides to win from way back a few years ago and he's plainly inherited a cracking spare ride again on The Package [13.5]. However, will David Pipe's gelding truly stay four and a half miles? On balance, I have my doubts. He might well trade short in running if his slightly low jumping style doesn't find him out. But that unforgiving final four furlongs is unknown territory.

7. The one story that stands out as having worldwide significance in this year's National relates to Nina Carberry and Character Building [22.0]. A woman winning the most famous jumps race in the world would make Racing For Change's job a lot easier and the ice cool Nina looks the perfect partner for the smooth travelling but slightly quirky Character Building. Don't expect to see him with the leaders on the first circuit. Do expect to see his pre-race odds tumble sharply if Nina starts to creep her way through tiring rivals from a mile out.

8. Some old timers are adamant that the National fences aren't as tough as they used to be. However, I can pretty much guarantee that at least 15 horses will fail to get round this Saturday and Arbor Supreme [21.0] could be one of them. Yes, he's been gambled on and has bags of ability, but he also tends to get behind and make the odd jarring blunder. Ask yourself this. Why have AP McCoy and Ruby Walsh both passed him over? They plainly have doubts about his jumping. So do I and I've layed him in the place market accordingly.

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