The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 25 January 2011 /

Steve takes it easy at the new event but he's ploughing into Tiger at the Farmers....

The second event of the now four-week long Gulf Swing starts on Thursday - the brand new Volvo Golf Champions at the Royal Golf Club in Bahrain.

On the Royal Golf Club's website there's an excellent course guide for this week's venue - the Colin Montgomerie designed Montgomerie course.

It very much looks as if accuracy over power will reward this week and players like Ian Poulter, Francesco Molinari and Mateo Manassero soon came to mind but making bets on the strength of a course guide is maybe a bit daft, so in a tight market, I've been ultra cautious. As far as I know there could be minimal rough and bombers like Alvaro Quiros could have a field day. The only sensible thing to do, as boring as it is, is to wait and see how things pan out. That said, four players did look well enough priced to invest in, albeit to relatively small stakes.

Thongchai Jaidee has a great record in this part of the world and a neat and accurate game that I suspect may suit the venue so he's been backed at [70.0].

Rhys Davies and Rafael Cabrera-Bello both put up encouraging efforts last week and shouldn't have been quoted at three-figure prices and Brett Rumford looked way too big to me at [210.0].

There are a number of quality players lining-up here this week and it's sure to be an entertaining event but given the huge unknown of the venue, making plays on anyone at relatively short prices makes no appeal at all and I'll be looking to get much more involved as the event progresses and the field thins out.

Selections:

Thongchai Jaidee @ [70.0]
Rhys Davies @ an average of [100.0]
Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ an average of [100.0]
Brett Rumford @ [210.0]

On the US PGA Tour, Tiger Woods returns to Torrey Pines, scene of arguably his greatest achievement, when he won the US Open with a broken leg in 2008. The US Open was played out solely around the tough South course, whereas this event also uses the easier North course - with the field playing the two courses alternately for the first two rounds before the weekend action unfolds on the South course.

I set out my argument for Tiger's case here last month and although I was hoping for a better price, I've backed him at [4.0]. My saner side tried in vain to talk me out of taking such a short price, given he hasn't won in over a year, but I wasn't a million miles from snubbing Martin Kaymer last week on account of price and he showed precisely why sometimes you just have to get onboard - paying a little less regard to price when a player's record at a particular course is so strong, and Tiger's record here is simply too impressive to ignore.

If he wins here this week that will be six course wins in-a-row (prior to his US Open win he won this event four times between 2005 and 2008) and I think he showed just enough at the tail-end of 2010 to make him worth a play at the cramped odds on offer.

It's worrying that Paul Krishnamurty has a very different opinion and he makes a very sound argument for not backing the world number three, but I simply have to. I concede he's quite possibly never going to be the colossus he once was but I think he'll have spent the last six weeks smarting over his loss at his own event - the Target Challenge and he'll be hungrier than ever this week.

I've also made a small play on second favourite Phil Mickelson. He's struggled a bit here since the track was toughened up in preparation for the 2008 US Open but his record is sound enough. He won this event in 2000 and 2001 and looked in decent nick at last week's Abu Dhabi Championship. I can't say I'm overly confident but [19.0] was a shade too big to ignore.

I took [46.0] about last year's champ Ben Crane and was happy enough with that price but I wished I'd held off longer. He's drifted like a barge since and I've no idea why really. Maybe it's the fact that he's playing the tougher South course first or maybe punters have seen his latest video and concluded he's gone mad! His work-out routine clip almost went viral and this one detailing his pre-round routine could do the same. They both made me chuckle anyway.

Finally, it's amazing how quickly some players fall out of favour with punters. One missed cut and Robert Garrigus is almost a forgotten man. That missed cut, at the Hawaiian Open, came just days after Jonathan Byrd had edged him out in a play-off at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. That flop was always a distinct possibility and readily excused and he could just be a massive price this week. His event form isn't spectacular but he has finished in the top-30 three times and he's a different player now for my money.

Selections:

Tiger Woods @ [4.0]
Phil Mickelson @ [19.0]
Ben Crane @ [46.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [170.0]

I'll be back on Thursday with my Live Golf Blog at the conclusion of round one in Bahrain.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: