Golf Bets / Paul Krishnamurty / 25 January 2011 /

Torrey Pines is Tigers Woods' ideal course and the scene of possibly his greatest triumph. So why does Paul Krishnamurty expect the world number three's winning run there to come to an end this week?

Life, or at least trying to pick golf winners, used to be so straightforward at this time of the year. Whatever happened in the other early-season events, one could rest safe in the knowledge that any losses could be recouped by backing Tiger Woods on his seasonal debut at Torrey Pines. It really was that simple - Woods has won this event six times, including on his last four attempts, only once missed the places and has a worst finish of 10th. Even on the rare occasions that he didn't win, he traded low enough to make a profit.

Of course, the odds were never anything to get excited about, with less than [3.0] the norm. However, even at such a skinny price, it was possible to justify a bet on grounds of statistical value, because his loyal supporters could boast a substantial profit on this ideal course. Indeed, the last time Tiger played this venue in the 2008 US Open, he won despite struggling to walk.

It has become painfully clear over the past year, however, that normal rules no longer apply. Tiger missed this event last year after disappearing from public life for a few months as his private life unravelled, and has never looked the same since. I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt early on, but as the season drew on it became clear that Tiger's troubles ran deeper than his marriage.

At no point during 2010 did he cut the same figure that had terrified a generation of opponents. There were still flashes of brilliance, and most other players would have taken his results, but having set the standard, it must have been humiliating. In the final tournament, his own event, Woods seemed certain to end his losing streak, but gave up a five shot lead to Graeme McDowell on the final day. That simply never used to happen, or look like happening.

Consequently, Tiger's seasonal debut has never been more significant. If he wins a sixth straight Torrey Pines renewal, supporters will justifiably gloat about getting unprecedented odds of [3.75] on his favourite course. Quotes of [5.7] for the Masters will swiftly disappear. Alternatively, a resounding defeat will strengthen the narrative that 'he'll never be the same again'. After Martin Kaymer's breathtaking performance in Abu Dhabi, Woods is down to world number three. It is becoming hard not to escape the conclusion that Tiger's career is moving in the wrong direction, while a new generation eyes world domination.

His odds are simply too short for me. At no recent point has he done anything to justify a single-figure quote on the PGA Tour, let alone this short. Yes, the brutal South Course at Torrey Pines is tailor-made for him. This extremely long layout, with very small greens, is the ultimate test of long-iron play and scrambling, placing a particularly strong emphasis on hitting greens in regulation. Considering Woods topped that discipline in four seasons this century, and was rarely outside the top-ten, one can see why he was so dominant here at his peak. Over the last 12 months though, he ranked a miserable 211th in this key category. Without marked improvement on that long-game front, he won't win this or any other big events.

It makes better sense to take advantage of Tiger's presence in a different way. With Woods taking out over a quarter of the book, some very interesting alternatives can be backed at tasty odds. Just as Kaymer has surpassed Tiger, so could US starlet Rickie Fowler. Rather like a young Woods, the quality of Rickie's iron-play strongly suggests he'll win on this course at some stage. When finishing fifth a year ago, Rickie was making only his 11th PGA Tour start.

2009 champion Nick Watney is another obvious candidate at around the same [29.0] odds. He followed up with a third Torrey Pines top-ten last year, and as one of the biggest hitters on the tour, Watney is clearly well suited to the South Course. Since recommending four players a fortnight ago as big improvers to follow, Charl Schwartzel has won and Bill Haas lost a play-off. Lets hope Nick can keep the good run going.

Recommended bets:

Farmers Insurance Open

Nick Watney @ [29.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [29.0]

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