The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 July 2010 /

Steve couldn't help himself, there's picks aplenty for the big one this week, including the world number one....

Here we are on the eve of what is one of the most eagerly awaited events in the sporting calendar, the Open Championship, and I've failed the week's first objective - to not get carried away with too many selections. Shock winners are far from a rarity in this event, recent winners Ben Curtis, Todd Hamilton and even last year's victor, Stewart Cink, all had punters scratching their heads, and if the weather's poor, finding the winner's going to be really tough but with eight pre-event picks I've had a try...

As for the weather... well I've given up scouring various sites, they change like...well, like the weather! It looks like we'll see some wind, though it doesn't look awful, and it appears rain showers will be a constant factor, but this is the east coast of Scotland, predicting the next five minutes can be a challenge at times, let alone the next five days - and for me, while it makes punting harder, if the weather does worsen, it only adds to the occasion.

The list of likely candidates this week is a long one indeed, and with a host of British and Irish players (all with abundant links experience) enjoying successful seasons, I've found it impossible to single out any of the more fancied ones.

It would be no surprise at all to see any of the 2010 winners -Graeme McDowell, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Justin Rose, Luke Donald, or Ian Poulter contend this week but none of them bowl me over price wise. And although winless so far this year, Padraig Harrington, Paul Casey and Ross Fisher can also play links golf and have obvious chances, but again, if there's value in their prices, I can't see it.

I may be swimming against the tide of popular opinion, many punters will agree with Ralph Ellis, but one player that I think is good value is Tiger Woods. Five years ago he went off at around [6.0] for the title here but was trading at odds on after the turn on Thursday! Now that sort of dream start isn't quite so likely this year, as he's hardly in great form, but I still think he's a decent bet to be leading after day one and you can bet your last pound that this is the major he would have fancied winning more than any other this year, and he's already finished in the top-4 in the first two! If he's going to get any success worth having in 2010 it will be this week. His two wins here in 2000 and 2005 were by an aggregate of an incredible 13 shots. There's no other way to put it, Tiger absolutely loves St Andrews and I think the layers are taking a big risk pushing him out as much as they are.

Having completed my 200 lines of "I must not back Phil Mickelson for the Open", what have I done? I know, I know, like a moth to the flame maybe and I can almost see Paul Krishnamurty shaking his head. I know his record in this event is absolutely dire but I just couldn't let him go un-backed at [20.0], it was just too big for such a brilliant player, who I believe, at the age of 40, is still improving, particularly at the majors.

If he's ever going to win an Open Championship it would have to be here. There's so much space off the tee and the big hitters have a considerable advantage as they can get past so many of the pot bunkers. He was 11th here back in 2000, which is his 2nd best Open performance and I'm going to be really generous and dismiss his poor effort five years ago - by the time he teed off on Thursday afternoon Tiger was clear and one of Phil's faults is that he'll push too early. He followed his dismal opening 74 with a 67 on the Friday morning, but he was already out of it by then.

After that it's a string of triple-figure priced plays, starting with last week's crossbar rattling big-priced play -Darren Clarke. I f I hadn't backed him last week I'd have probably left him out this but I can't endure the pain of watching him get in to contention un-backed after the agonies of last week.

The saddest thing about this week is that Seve Ballesteros has been told by his doctors not to make the trip to St Andrews, but maybe in a year where Spain are enjoying so much sporting success, with Rafael Nadal scooping up the tennis majors, the footie team conquering the world, and Miguel Angel Jimenez reeling back the years in our little game, one of his countrymen may just be inspired.

The likable Alvaro Quiros has said on many occasions that Seve was his inspiration as a child, so imagine the scenes if he could get his hands on the Claret Jug come Sunday night...and he's not without a chance. He's in pretty good form this summer and his length off the tee will be a big advantage. Whether he's quite ready for such a big win is questionable but he's too big at [130.0].

I backed Thomas Bjorn before his poor showing at the Barclays Scottish Open last week so I haven't availed myself of a terrific price, but I haven't given up on him completely. He has a fine Open Championship record which includes his second place finish behind Tiger here a decade ago. He won't mind if the weather gets nasty and if he plays like he did at the recent Estoril Open he could go very close.

Already a major winner, Trevor Immelman has been dogged by injury since his win at the Masters in 2008, but he put in a really decent effort last week and I felt he was just about a decent price at [280.0].

Simon Dyson trotted up here back in October at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. He's not having a great year by any means but he may just get inspired returning to the scene of his greatest triumph.

And finally, just for a bit of fun I've tried to find a pick from one of the many players trading at the maximum price. I couldn't quite manage it but I felt up-and-coming Korean youngster Noh Seung Yul was a sporty price at [970.0].

Selections:

Tiger Woods @ [7.0]
Phil Mickelson @ [20.0]
Darren Clarke @ [130.0]
Alvaro Quiros @ [130.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [170.0]
Trevor Immelman @ [280.0]
Simon Dyson @ [380.0]
Noh Seung Yul @ [970.0]

All that remains now is to wish you all good luck and to warn you all against the perils of DVT. If like me you plan to be glued to the TV for 11 hours on Thursday and Friday, make sure you get up occasionally and stretch your legs, and maybe purchase a pair of surgical stockings, just to be on the safe side, it's a perilous business this golf watching lark you know.

I'll be back each day with an update, either late in the evening or first thing in the morning.

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