The Open / Ralph Ellis / 06 July 2010 /

Not only has Tiger failed to win a tournament this year but he's also reneged on his vows to respect the sport. None of this bodes well for his chances of winning the Open, says Ralph Ellis.

Ok, so I know that form is temporary and class is permanent. I know that the cream always rises to the top. And I know there's no substitute for talent. But for the life of me I still can't understand why Tiger Woods remains favourite, albeit at [7.0], for The Open.

Now regular readers will know this marks a change of tack. I've been backing Tiger to win a Major - or to be more accurate laying him at around [1.5] for No Majors - ever since he stepped back into the public eye in January. There are still two chances to rescue those bets, but I've realised it's time to accept that it is money going down the pan.

Thankfully that's made easier by having tipped and backed Justin Rose for the AT&T at [32.0] last week (which came after a very good Wimbledon fortnight laying Roger Federer for his quarter and picking Tomas Berdych as the big outsider). So my 'available to bet' fund is looking healthy. But any hope Woods might make it better still in a week's time at St Andrew's has disappeared.

He's never before, in 13 years as a pro, reached July without winning a tournament. And there's not the slightest sign of anything changing. In fact things are getting worse.

Every time I saw him interviewed last week he was talking a great game about how he was hitting the ball sweetly but just failing to make putts. Then the film showed him hooking a drive into the picket fence by the far side of the next fairway.

What's worse, his promise to respect his sport seems to have fallen by the wayside. Last week, he was chucking clubs across the Aronomink Golf Club course in a temper. And yesterday, when he joined all the other big names who turned up for the JP McManus charity day in Ireland, he finished a first round 79 and got straight in the posh car and headed off with little time for the thousands of well wishers.

His preparation for St Andrews seems wrong too. While some are heading from Limerick to Loch Lomond for the Scottish Open, and others straight to the Royal and Ancient for practice, he's jetting back and forth across the Atlantic to seek sanctuary in Florida away from prying camera lenses.

It seems that in the throes of a messy and very expensive divorce Woods doesn't know who he is or what he wants. And that's having a serious effect on his golf.

So the best strategy for The Open is to ignore him and look for the men who are in form because Betfair's market offers tremendous value. Don't even think about looking at the winner without Woods market, because the winner won't be Woods. It leaves Rose, with two tournament wins in his last three outings, as a very tempting [25.0], and US Open winner Graeme McDowell an equally appealing [32.0]. I quite like the look of Ian Poulter too at [40.0]. His preparation got disrupted by an insect bite that turned septic when he was in France last week, but he too is close to finding his best form.

You also can't rule out Lee Westwood; or Rory McIlroy; or Phil Mickelson. In fact the only person you can rule out is Tiger!


Five things you might not know about Graeme McDowell

1. Born in Portrush, Northern Ireland, in July 1979, and got keen on golf when he was given a putter for his seventh birthday. A year later his uncle Uel Loughery gave him proper lessons and introduced him to nearby Rathmore Golf Club

2. Nick Faldo was his hero. He says: "I don't like to admit it but I even had a wardrobe full of Pringle sweaters"

3. He won a golf scholarship to the University of Alabama and in 2002 won the Haskins Award for most outstanding collegiate golfer in the States

4. His Mum Marian has suffered from MS for the last eight years

5. After winning the US Open he lost the combination for the case the trophy was kept in and had to use bolt cutters to open it.

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