The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 18 August 2010 /

Steve's scoured the markets for value at both this week's events and he's found a brand new pro to keep an eye on....

After four energy sapping late nights engrossed in the US PGA Championship, I spent Monday recovering rather than studying the form and as a result I missed a few prices. Snooze you lose, as the inane saying goes.

The first price I missed out on was the [30.0] plus on Alejandro Canizares to win the Czech Open but I haven't cut my nose off to spite my face and I've backed him at [29.0]. He hasn't got great course form, having finished in a tie for 53rd last year and his 44th placed finish last time out in Ireland wasn't a scintillating effort either but I'm prepared to excuse those performances. He was in poor form this time last year and the Irish outing can be forgiven as it came so soon after the Open Championship, where for three days his name featured prominently on the leaderboard.

Having lost in two play-offs already this year, at the Open de France and the Iberdrola Open, as well as finishing third at the Open de Espana, I felt he was well worth chancing here. He should be nice and fresh given he wasn't in last week's gruelling major and a repeat of the form shown in France and Spain would almost certainly see him home here. After that I've struggled....

There were four Czech Opens between 1994 and 1997, but the event was lost from the schedule until last year when this Miguel Jimenez designed venue, the Prosper Golf Resort, was unveiled to the world. One year's course form isn't much to ponder though and when that one year doesn't throw up anything obvious, making selections is hard.

The closest I came to making another pick amongst the market leaders was Simon Dyson, one of a number of players trying desperately to secure a place on the Ryder Cup team. His performance last week, when he finished tied for 12th, heralded a sensational return to form but I'm concerned about the bounce factor, as well as the journey. Trains, planes and automobiles were all required to get him from Wisconsin to Čeladná, and that ordeal might just take the edge of him. It was a close call, but at just [25.0] I felt he was a shade too short.

My only other pick is a miniscule wager on brand new professional Tommy Fleetwood, who makes his pro debut this week, though not his tournament debut. While most of us had our attention firmly on the Open Championship, young Tommy was finishing in a tie for second, beaten just a stroke, at the English Challenge on the Challenge Tour. After a glittering amateur career Fleetwood promises much and looks one to keep an eye on.

Selections:

Alejandro Canizares @ [29.0]
Tommy Fleetwood @ [240.0]

This week's US event is the Wyndham Championship and I've definitely missed the value with Monday's bout of laziness! Paul Krishnamurty's piece about the correlation of form between Donald Ross courses sums up my tactics for this week too but I've missed all the good prices.

I always have a quick scan of the following week's markets on a Sunday night and sometimes I see a price that's just too big. This week it was Justin Leonard at [65.0]. There wasn't much available but I took what there was. What I didn't do though was take the same price about Marc Leishman, instead I put in an overly ambitious request that never got matched and I'm kicking myself now.

As Paul points out, Leishman's form on Donald Ross layouts gives him a squeak this week but I can't take less than [50.0] about him. I've backed him a number of times (he plays particularly well in Texas) but he gets quite wobbly in contention and I feel he's too short now.

The market leaders and last two winners of the event, Ryan Moore and Carl Pettersson, are also too short for my liking now. If I'd got myself organised earlier I may have backed them - Moore's been matched at as high as [28.0] and Pettersson [40.0]. Just to illustrate how short these guys are this time around, I backed Pettersson last year when he was defending champ at [100.0] and in 2008, a year too early! I took [95.0] about Ryan Moore.

Although Anthony Kim's form figures and stats are poor since his return from injury I was tempted by him, but in the end I've left him out and backed just two others.

The diminutive Richard S Johnson has held his form really well since winning the Scandinavian Masters - 22nd at the Greenbrier Classic the following week was a decent enough performance and his fourth place at the Turning Stone Championship was even better. He ranked first in fairways hit and seventh in putting there and if he repeats that form here he'll go very close. Finding fairways and putting is exactly what's required around Sedgefield and I thought [65.0] was a very fair price.

And last up is Matt Bettencourt (again). He missed the cut last week but prior to that was in cracking form and is simply too big to ignore.

Selections:

Justin Leonard @ [65.0]
Richard S Johnson @ [65.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [95.0]

I'll be back on Saturday morning with an update.

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