The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 03 July 2011 / 2

With no broadband, it's been a quiet 24 hours for Steve but he's still in with a chance of a winning week...

12.00 - July 3, 2011

To my abject horror, when I switched on the laptop yesterday morning I couldn't get online. Five minutes of switching the hub on and off failed to solve the problem and an hour on the phone to India resulted in nothing but frustration. As the day unfolded it became apparent that I wasn't alone, the whole village has lost its broadband connection. Not being the sharpest tool in the box, it took me until this morning for my grey matter to recall old fashioned dial-up. Ten minutes of searching yielded a phone line and here I am. Eureka.

As you can imagine, having not been online at all yesterday I've done precisely nothing at either event. Had I been online, I would have probably looked to get Martin Kaymer onside in Paris and I may well have layed some of my Thorbjorn Olesen wager back. But it's all ifs and buts.

I went out for the evening last night so the AT & T has rolled along without me too. I was really disappointed by Charlie Wi's effort - especially given that he birdied the first two holes but you never know he may be more comfortable now, three shots off the lead. Bill Haas is on the same score as Wi (-6) so he too trails joint-leaders Nick Watney and Rickie Fowler by three.

This looks a really tough one to call with plenty of potential winners. Can Fowler break his duck? Can Watney follow up yesterday's course record 62? Can KJ Choi bounce back and retake the lead? Can either Steve Marino or Webb Simpson get their first wins? Or maybe Steve Williams can get back in the winner's circle - this time with Adam Scott.

As I didn't watch any play yesterday and given how tricky it looks, I'm doing nothing for now - though I am slightly tempted to lay the leaders.

I hope we get the broadband back at some point today because that event looks ripe for some in-running trading. I'm going to be restricted if it doesn't though because if I go online I lose the phone and I'm hardly going to be the fastest trader around using dial-up! It could just be too frustrating to even try.

Broadband or no broadband, I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief.

00.15- July 1, 2011

We all need a slice of good fortune from time to time and when someone, Justsomeone as it happens, posted a comment on my preview piece, questioning why I had so quickly lost faith in Thorbjorn Olesen, they were becoming the third person to do so in the space of 24 hours. It was time to sit up and listen and I placed a small wager on the promising Dane at [220.0].

As if that wasn't fortunate enough, the name below Olesen's was George Coetzee. He'd been a selection of mine for the last three weeks and he'd fared well enough on each occasion but when I'd assessed George's chances on Monday I felt he was just a shade short at around [80.0] so I'd left him out. When I saw him trading at [130.0], before a ball had been struck, I couldn't believe how much he'd drifted so I backed him as well!

Remarkably, both players shot 5 under par and are just one off the lead after day one.

In addition to those additional pre-event picks, I've had a couple of in-running plays. Matteo Manassero looked generously priced at [11.5] as he finished off his round with a bogey on the ultra tough 18th hole to shoot -3, and I also backed James Morrison at an average of [44.0] as he closed out an impressive 66.

Of my original picks, only Robert Rock, who shot one-under, looks to have any chance at this early stage. Alvaro Quiros bogeyed his last two holes to ruin an OK round, Brendan Steele was hopeless and poor Gary Boyd just putted deplorably. He ranked 1st for driving Accuracy, 2nd for Driving Distance and 15th for Greens In Regulation, but 35 putts is far too many at this level and I feel for the bloke. He's alongside Quiros on +2.

2007 Champ, Graeme Storm and 2004 runner-up, Richard Green hold sway after day one and they'll fancy their chances. Last year's winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez, proved an exception to the rule here when winning after a poor start. He 'd shot 71 on day one, was sitting way down the field in a tie for 43rd and was eight shots off the lead but he had stuttering front-runners to thank for his success.

Most years at Le golf National it's been key to be up with the pace from the get-go. In the four years before Jimenez's win, three first round leaders went on to win and Storm was in a tie for 3rd in '07 - just one off of the lead. This isn't usually a catch-up course and I'm more than happy to have three of the top-five onside at this stage.

Camilo Villegas has flopped at the AT & T National but my other two pre-event picks both managed to shoot under par and that's a fair start given the lead is just -4 at this stage - held jointly by Adam Scott and Hunter Haas.

I've also added Justin Leonard, who I'd considered before the off. I thought this course would suit but as he'd been in awful form of late I'd left him out. I placed a very small bet at [200.0] after he'd birdied the 9th to get to 2 under.

Open de France pre-event picks

Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0]
Robert Rock @ [65.0]
Gary Boyd @ [130.0]
George Coetzee @ [130.0]
Brendan Steele @ [160.0]
Thorbjorn Olesen @ [220.0]

In-running plays

Matteo Manassero @ [11.5] - after day one
James Morrison @ [44.0] - after day one

AT & T National pre-event picks

Bill Haas @ [50.0]
Camilo Villegas @ [70.0]
Charlie Wi @ [80.0]

In-running play

Justin Leonard @ [200.0] - during round one

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(2)

1. Justsomeone | 03 July 2011

   Darn close!!! Laid parts of my bet off, but feel really sorry for the young dane. Excellent control all day, untill the last putt. Not sure whether it was all down to nerves or just a bad putt. Ah well. Someone to watch out for. He is surely going to win soon.
   Currently checking into wether he is likely to play links-golf well.

2. Steven Rawlings | 04 July 2011

   Thanks for last week justsomeone. I’m not convinced I’d have been on if you hadn’t have posted your comments.

   He really does look the business doesn’t he and it’s surely only a matter of time.

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