The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 June 2011 / 2

After some big-priced recent near misses, our man again hunts out the value in the outright golf markets. Can he hit the jackpot this week?

For the 10th year running Le Golf National hosts the Open de France, and it was also the venue most used during the 90's, so there's plenty of form to wade through.

Although Miguel Angel Jimenez won here last year, and Martin Kaymer 12 months earlier, recent results have been hard to predict and shock winners are the norm rather than the exception. With water in play on a number of holes, accuracy holds sway over power.

The first player to come in for serious consideration was Kaymer. I managed to catch him in 2009 at the rewarding odds of [34.0] and I was again onboard last year at [20.0] when he led with a round to go but failed to convert. He said last week that he was looking forward to this event and that he liked the course but he's just too short for me. I wanted [13.0] at least so I've reluctantly left him out.

Peter Hanson boasts both course and current form, Francesco Molinari lost in the play-off last year and Matteo Manassero, like his compatriot, has just the right credentials for this track but all three were short enough for my liking.

Given the precision over power theory, backing Alvaro Quiros this week is perhaps more foolish than brave but amongst the market leaders he's the only one that looks generously priced to me.

Since teaming up with caddie Gareth Lord, who had great success with both David Howell and Robert Karlsson, Alvaro's results have improved almost unnoticed. He co-led the US Masters after day one following a stunning 65, finished a remarkably good 6th at the Players Championship on a course I wouldn't have fancied him to fare well on at all. He was bang there at halfway at the PGA at Wentworth, again on a course that wasn't exactly made for him, and he contended well at the US Open until a poor final round saw him slide down the leaderboard. And check out his stats at Congressional. Surprisingly, he was ranked 6th for Driving Accuracy and 10th for Greens in Regulation! He hasn't played at a venue to suit for months, and that's again the case here but I think he's a winner waiting to happen and I felt he was worth chancing at [28.0]. If he brings that accuracy to Paris he'll be considerably shorter in no time.

I wouldn't have been remotely interested in backing Robert Rock a month ago but since his win in Italy and his excellent effort at the US Open he now commands respect. He was sitting in 5th place after round one last year so can play the track and he was ten points or so too big at [65.0].

Gary Boyd gets another chance at big odds. He came close to winning in Italy two weeks ago but was disappointing after a great start last week. His long game was in great order all week but he putted poorly. If he can get that department back in order he's miles too big again.

With the Ryder Cup coming here in 2018 it's perhaps a little early for US reconnaissance missions but a few Americans have made the trip this year. Bubba Watson was all over the place last week and makes little appeal with so much water about but I thought his compatriot Brendon Steele was very much over-priced at [160.0]. He's already won on the PGA Tour this year, having taken the Texas Open just two months ago.

Selections

Alvaro Quiros @ [28.0]
Robert Rock @ [65.0]
Gary Boyd @ [130.0]
Brendan Steele @ [160.0]

The AT &T National's usual host course is Congressional but because that hosted this year's US Open the Donald Ross designed Aronimink in Pennsylvania hosted the event last year and will again do so this time around. We may only have last year's course form to peruse but as I highlighted in last year's De-Brief there was a very strong correlation between form at Aronimink and the Wyndham Championship, played on another Donald Ross track - Sedgefield. I extended that theory to include other Donald Ross tracks - Pinehurst (US Open 2005) and Oakland Hills (2008 PGA Championship) and finished up with a list of likely candidates.

Nick Watney, Ryan Moore (in particular), J B Holmes, Justin Rose, Brian Gay and Carl Pettersson all came close to inclusion but were all rejected on account of either price or current form, and there were others too! But only three made the portfolio.

Bill Haas is having a decent year and he's twice shone at Sedgefield. He shot a pair of 65s there last year in rounds two and three and he led the event on day one a year earlier, after opening with 62. [50.0] was a fair price.

Like Haas, Camilo Villegas didn't play in this event last year and he's hasn't played Sedgefield either but he was 4th in the 2008 PGA behind Padraig Harrington at Oakland Hills and he looked to be returning to form when third at the St Jude Classic three weeks ago. After an opening 77 at Congressional he was always up against it at the US Open but he can bounce back here at a venue that should suit.

My third and final pick is Charlie Wi. He too figured in the 2008 PGA, finishing in the top-ten, and he was 4th here last year. Like Villegas, he's never played Sedgefield but I felt he was worth trying at such a big price, given he nearly broke his duck at the recent Crowne Plaza invitational when he finished runner-up to Toms.

Selections

Bill Haas @ [50.0]
Camilo Villegas @ [70.0]
Charlie Wi @ [80.0]

I'll be back on Friday morning with the Live Golf Blog.

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(2)

1. Justsomeone | 29 June 2011

   Absolutely agree on B. Steele. Recent PGA tour winner should not be 3 digits in this field, I would say.

   You were on Olesen last week, but have given up? His father is with him in Paris, and his swing is, in my mind, way too good to be priced at 230, in particular now where his putting has improved a bit.

2. Steven Rawlings | 30 June 2011

   Hi Justsomeone,

   Given you’re now the third person to ask why I’ve abandoned Olesen this week; I’ve decided to add him. And I’ve also had a small (just in case) bet on George Coetzee. I hadn’t noticed how badly he’d drifted.

   As for our friend Mr Steele, the least said the better!

   Cheers
   Steve
   

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