The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 12 June 2011 /

Steve's at a loss as to what to do with Karlsson and he doesn't seem to be any closer to solving the Italian job either!

10.10- June 12, 2011

Mercifully, the forecasted bad weather didn't arrive in Turin yesterday and the Italian Open looks set to complete on time today. It's still a very tough puzzle to solve and I've added one more to my team - taking [27.0] about Rhys Davies. He's currently three off the lead but if he can find a few more fairways than he did yesterday and give himself a few more chances to work his magic with the putter he could be the one but it's virtually impossible to predict.

Robert Rock still holds the lead but he's not one to rely on - still without a win, he usually gets very nervous when in with a chance. That said, he's too good a player not to get the job done eventually and a two shot lead is a nice buffer.

Current second favourite, Francesco Molinari, in the six-man tie for second with a round to go, had a mini crisis when he hit the front yesterday and although he's the class act he doesn't win anywhere near as many events as he should. I've got him onside but I wouldn't say I'm confident he'll convert.

One of the other five tied for 2nd is pre-event pick Gary Boyd. He's paired with Molinari today so there'll be a nice big crowd following and I'll probably know quite early on whether that inspires him or not. I'd like to get a bit layed back on him so a nice fast start would be lovely.

At the St Jude Classic, Robert Karlsson still leads, but not by as much as looked likely. A par at the easy 16th and bogeys at his last two holes yesterday reduced a four shot lead to just one over Harrison Frazar.

I have to confess, I still don't know how to play this one. Karlsson's task looks straight forward enough and his closest pursuers don't look too dangerous but he's been in front for a long while now and last night's little wobble could be a sign of worse to come. I still feel as though I don't want to back him and especially not at odds on, though I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him win comfortably! I've tried to get a few alternatives onside but to no avail and depending on how this afternoon pans out, I may just take another night off. Either way, I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief.

09:50- June 11, 2011

They're off and running in Italy and already they're banging in the birdies. With lift, clean and place in operation and with highly receptive rain-softened greens scoring is easy and this weekend's winner will need to shoot a barrel load of birdies.

Robert Rock leads the way on -12 but surely it's only a matter of time before he does the usual and disappoints. Hot on his heels on -11 are two others also looking for their maiden wins - Joost Luiten and Chris Wood and just one further back are the Italian pre-event favourites - Matteo Manassero and Francesco Molinari, pre-event third favourite Gregory Bourdy, Italian rookie Lorenzo Gagli, classy Welshman Rhys Davies and my man Gary Boyd - who I've greedily topped up on at [30.0]. And there's a plethora of likely lads on -9. It's open to say the least!

Throw in the threat of further bad weather, which could mean we only get three rounds (they won't want a Monday finish, given the US Open's on next week) and it's a devilishly difficult event to call. I've had just one more wager, taking [50.0] about one of those likely lads on -9 - Brett Rumford. He looks a fraction big to me but in truth, it's really tough to call. It looks like it'll be great entertainment though so fingers crossed the rain stays away.

Over in the States I'd fancied Robert Karlsson might wobble yesterday. He didn't. Far from it, instead he shot a fantastic five under par 65 and now has a stranglehold on the event - leading by three from Colt Knost and recent Byron Nelson champ Keegan Bradley.

Karlsson may well go on to win but at no stage has his price appealed to me and I'm not about to dive in at [2.6] - that wobble might yet materialise. I've staked very little here and with a very busy week on the cards next week I'm going to take the opportunity of a Saturday night off. Stephen Ames is six back of Karlsson and if the giant Swede stutters he'll have a squeak and I've added two more that might benefit from a Swedish slip-up.

Brandt Snedeker, alongside Ames on -3, is aiming to emulate Brian Gay and win both this event and the Heritage in the same year. A feat Gay achieved just two years ago. He looked a decent price at [25.0] last night and I've also backed Troy Matteson on -3. If Karlsson keeps his head and continues in the form he's shown so far, he's a certainty. That could well be a big if though.

13.25- June 10, 2011

Although somewhat contradictory to my post this morning, I've just sat and bit by bit got a small bet on Francesco Molinari matched at [8.4]. The market is assuming some very good rounds this afternoon in Italy and it could well be right but I felt Molly was worth getting onside at over [8.0], given he's still tied for the lead, though possibly not for long...

10:30 - June 10, 2011

I appear to be in a state of paralysis at the Italian Open - unable or unwilling to add to my initial wagers. Obviously I regret not getting Francesco Molinari onside, as he's making relentless progress up the leaderboard again this morning - indeed he's now reached the summit. But something stops me from taking the plunge on him now. Perhaps it's the memory of him getting into the thick of things here two years ago before messing up completely?

With the rain-softened greens scoring is very low and anyone making a bogey goes backwards very quickly so I envisage a fast changing leaderboard today and given the threat of delays due to yet more rain forecast, I'm more than happy to bide my time.

Of my three pre-event picks, Alejandro Canizares is currently five behind Molly but he hasn't started his second round yet and Gary Boyd, who was also one of this week's Find Me A 100 Winner picks, is just one back with eight to play this morning. George Coetzee looks out of it.

I may regret not backing Molinari but I'm chuffed to bits with how I've played the St Jude Classic so far. I could very easily have layed out plenty of cash before the off, fancying quite strongly the first four in the market. What I didn't fancy was their prices however and letting them all go un-backed has proved a great tactic. Zach Johnson and David Toms look out of it. Brian Gay is six off the lead and I'm not convinced by Lee Westwood.

Of my two bets before the off, Ben Crane yet again struggled. He's been suffering from various ailments and whether there's still an injury issue or he's just gone off the boil I've no idea. Either way he appears to be out of the reckoning all ready but there's better news with Heath Slocum. After a decent finish to his first round, Heath sits on -2, just three off David Mathis' early lead.

The market is headed by Lee Westwood (on -1) and Robert Karlsson (-4) but I'm not overly tempted by either. Westwood's game didn't look as sharp as it has been last night and Karlsson may be a bit too close to the lead too soon and I fancy he might wobble a bit today. I have added three more picks though...

Y E Yang looked a fair price beforehand at around [80.0] and after a level par start [70.0] is more than fairly priced. I've backed Stephen Ames more times than I care to remember but he's done me more than the odd good turn. He's finally shown a modicum of form and after shooting -1, I felt he was worth a very small investment. And finally, from far leftfield, check out veteran Steve Flesch's scorecard. Woefully out of form, his first nine of four over par was far from a shock but he then shot -4 on the front nine - his second nine. Did something click? I felt it was worth throwing a few quid at him at over [300.0] to find out. He's a multiple winner and he's been known to find form from nowhere before.

Italian Open Pre-event picks:

Alejandro Canizares @ [90.0]
George Coetzee @ [130.0]
Gary Boyd @ an average of [160.0]

In-running plays:

Francesco Molinari @ [8.4] - After round two
Gary Boyd @ [30.0] - After round two
Brett Rumford @ [50.0] - After round two
Rhys Davies @ [27.0] - After round three

St Jude Classic pre-event picks:

Ben Crane @ [50.0]
Heath Slocum @ [120.0]

In-running plays:

Y E Yang @ [70.0] - After round one
Stephen Ames @ [140.0] - After round one
Steve Flesch @ an average of [320.0] - After round one
Brandt Snedeker @ [25.0] - After round two
Troy Matteson @ [80.0] - After round two

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