The Punter's De-Brief: The Avantha Masters and the Northern Trust Open
The Punter
/
Steven Rawlings /
21 February 2011 /
Fred Couples congratulates Aaron Baddeley on the 18th green
"I’m kicking myself for not throwing a few quid at Chowrasia for old time’s sake and I regret then being so cavalier with Couples."
Not a great weekend for Steve as he rues not backing SSP in India and fails to lay Boom Boom at Riviera.....
SSP Chowrasia won the Avantha Masters in New Delhi, thanks largely to an awful finish from England's Robert Coles. He'd previously won the title in 2008 when the event was known as the Indian Masters. Whilst in the States, yet another triple-figure priced winner went in but not the one I wanted. Poor old Freddy Couples' nerves capitulated as Aaron Baddeley held firm to beat Vijay Singh by two strokes.
My bets
It's been a quiet week and a disappointing one. All four of my picks in India held a chance of sorts at times but none of them figured when it mattered and not backing the winner to any extent was possibly a bit daft. I'd had a few bob on him three years ago at a juicy [280.00] and I'd even backed him as recently as November at the Hong Kong Open. I did look at him before the off but his win in '08 had been at a different venue, he wasn't in form and his course form was uninspiring - still leaves a slightly nasty taste that I didn't throw a few pounds at him at his sp of around [300.00] though.
And I really should've at least shown a profit this week, given Fed Couples, backed at an average of [250.00], was matched at just [3.0] last night after he opened up with three straight birdies. There's no excuse really but my reasons for hanging on were twofold. My bet was far from massive and it came a week after a decent win on Alvaro Quiros in Dubai. I felt like riding my luck a bit but it backfired badly. He missed a par putt on the sixth from four feet and then drove into the thick stuff on the 7th. In no time he'd gone from trading below [4.0] to double figures.
So it's a funny ole sum up this week. I'm kicking myself for not throwing a few quid at Chowrasia for old time's sake and I regret then being so cavalier with Couples. Inconsistent is the word really. Backing someone just because I'd won with them before, even though I couldn't fancy them at all on all known evidence, could be construed as a bit amateurish anyway, but then not laying Couples back at all certainly was.
Player to watch
He's never likely to be a betting proposition but two-time heart transplant recipient Erik Compton sure is an inspiration. He was a Monday qualifier this week and his seven under par 64 yesterday was the low round of the week. His is quite an amazing story and it's fantastic to see him playing well enough to finish in the top 25 at such a big event. Hopefully that will secure him a few invites - his next appearance isn't until next month at the Puerto Rico Open.
Player to swerve
I've backed Raphael Cabrera-Bello a few times this year but thought he looked short enough for the Avantha Masters at less than [30.0]. He reached ten under par on Friday to take up the running by a couple of strokes though and I wondered whether I'd been right to baulk at the price.
After taking the lead, he bogeyed two of his last three holes and then played poor all weekend, failing to break 70 and plummeting down the leaderboard to a tie for 16th place. If this had been a regular European Tour event, with a strong field, I'd have been inclined to forgive the performance but this was anything but a strong field and he really should have had the game and the experience to have fared a fair bit better. He's a really streaky birdie machine on his day and won in Austria in '09 after shooting 60 on the Sunday and off the pace may still be the best way to play Cabrera-Bello for a while yet.
What have we learnt for next year?
The last two results of the Avantha Masters at the DLF Golf and Country Club show that neither driving distance or accuracy are too important - the key stats are putting and GIR (Greens In Regulation), in that order.
I'll be back tomorrow night with a look at this week WGC Match Play event, which starts on Wednesday. The draw has now been finalised and you can print the four brackets here.