The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 20 February 2011 / 1

SSP collects, as Robert Coles crashing on the last....

10.35- February 20, 2011

The Avantha Masters was in its final throes by the time I got up this morning and India's SSP Chowrasia was a couple clear with four to play and odds on. My lot had all caved in easily and I wasn't too chuffed to see SSP in front. I'd backed him at [280.0] when he won this event, formally the Indian Masters, back in 2008. His form's been poor ever since but a few quid at his sp of [300.0] wouldn't have gone a miss would it.

He made a right mess of the 16th, making double-bogey and he was then tied with England's Robert Coles - who still had five holes to play. Coles looked in the driving seat and went odds on. I was still a bit sick though - SSP had traded at a low of [1.23] - more than low enough to make a decent profit on a bet at [300.0]!

The Indian then played the last two holes in par as Coles moved along steadily. It was at that point that I backed Chowrasia at [3.35]. Tied for the lead, there were birdie opportunities ahead for Coles but they had to be taken.

When the Englishman stiffed it on the 17th to within four feet for birdie it looked all over, with the reachable par 5 18th still to come, but he missed the birdie putt.

Then a great drive on the last set up Coles and his second shot found the scruffy rough at the back of the green - down in two for the win, three for a play-off. I couldn't see any worse than a par and layed my bet on SSP back at [3.20]. What happened next was sad to see....

Coles chunked his eagle chip across the green, blasted the 20 foot birdie putt 12 feet past and missed the par save. Ouch! That got the porridge churning. I didn't know who I felt sicker for, me or him.

Over in the States, Couples is hanging in there but now trails Aaron Baddeley by one. The betting suggests it's now between those two, Tour maiden Kevin Na (alongside Couples), and Vijay Singh, who sits one behind that pair.

I'm not doing anything just yet apart from hoping Fred trades a bit shorter - so far the lowest he's gone is [5.6], which I felt was still a bit high to trade any back. I can see Singh or Baddeley winning if I'm honest and the worst value looks to be Na - he shouldn't be any shorter than Couples for my money. He's never won and always struggles in the mix and he's got the added pressure of trying to win for his ailing father. I wish him well but fear a meltdown and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that someone comes from off the pace, so I'll be keeping a keen eye on those a few further back - particularly JB Holmes, who may make an ideal chaser on a course that clearly suits.

I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief.

13.45- February 19, 2011

They've just finished in the New Delhi dusk at the Avantha Masters and they still haven't finished round three - the fog that blighted day one, and to a far lesser extent day two, again returned this morning to cause yet another delay. To make matters worse a colossal 81 players have made the cut, so the final three-ball after round two still have five holes left to play of their third round.

I was quite hopeful of Karlberg and Aphibarnrat yesterday but they've both disappointed and dropped away. Of my other two, Marksaeng is done for round three and on -8 and Nirat, backed at [200.0], has also completed his third round and is a shot better off. That's two off the lead - held currently by Spain's Pablo Larrazabal, who eagled the last, and England's Robert Coles, who has a couple of holes still to play.

Last year's finish was reminiscent of a five furlong sprint at Goodwood and it looks like we're in for much the same tomorrow. I've a feeling all mine are too far back but I don't want to back anyone else at this stage.

Of the experienced players in the mix, Cabrera-Bello looks as though he may be better suited to chasing, Jeev Milkha Singh looks a bit rusty and Jaidee is carrying a back injury. It's a really hard one to call and I'm quite grateful not to have got involved. If I absolutely had to make a bet now I'd probably play Gregory Havret and if he drifts to [20.0] I may but for now it's a wait and see job.

Meanwhile in the States, I'd love to say I dumped my Mickelson wager when he shortened to below [10.0] whilst playing the 1st hole yesterday but I'm sorry to say I didn't. He was all over the shop yesterday and did remarkably well to shoot under par but he looks out of it now, as do all of my picks - bar one.

My one bright spark of the event is Fred Couples, who leads at halfway by two shots. I may be brave, daft, or a bit of both but I'm going to hang on for now.

Old Boom Boom has become very erratic in-contention over the last few years or so but I'm hoping a return to winning ways on the Champions Tour last year may help his nerves this weekend.

Besides, the leaderboard is littered with far from resolute finishers and quite why JB Holmes is a shorter price is beyond me. He's been appalling in contention ever since his final day flop at the 2008 PGA Championship where he shot 81 in the final round to drop from 2nd to a tie for 29th, having led the field at halfway.

Due to fading light yesterday a few players need to finish up round two and they'll return to the fray at 3.00pm UK time.

13.15- February 18, 2011

What a frustrating morning! Sky's four hours of live golf was live for the last fifteen minutes only. For some bizarre reason, known only to them, for the first three-and-a-half hours or so we watched play that was getting on for two hours old.

After the delay yesterday round two isn't quite finished yet so they'll be back in the morning to finish off but I'm doing OK so far. Having played round two, Aphibarnrat sits just one off Raphael Cabrera-Bello's lead. And still on the course, Karlberg's a further shot back. Siem's missed the cut but my other two picks are still in with the tiniest of squeaks.

I've done nothing else just yet but both Thongchai Jaidee and Jeev Milkha Singh have sneaked into the picture, a shot off the lead, and have to be respected.

It was a busy and ultimately disappointing evening's work at the Northern Trust Open. As I'd hinted at yesterday, and in my preview, I was always likely to back Mickelson to some extent at some stage and so I did...

When Steve Stricker, Dustin Johnson and even Jim Furyk all started poorly with a morning tee time, I thought Lefty was just too big at [9.2] before he started, and when he birdied his first two holes I was ahead of the game. I'd taken the decision to trade him back-and-forth so it was an ideal start. A run of three bogeys in four didn't help my course though and a missed eagle putt on the 1st hole (his 10th), from under four feet, was a real pain. When I went to bed, with Mickelson on -1 and with six holes to play - I had backed him at an average of just over [9.0] and layed him at just over [8.0], so I had a nice free bet, with a hope of a decent finish.

Unfortunately that didn't materialise, he played the last six holes in one over and ended the day on level par, alongside a couple of my picks - Louis Oosthuizen and Mark Wilson. The best of mine so far is Fred Couples who shot three under, which is one off the logjam at the top.

Bubba was the huge disappointment. He struggled all day, apparently suffering with a pulled oblique muscle and he's now withdrawn.

Although disappointed by Lefty's finish, with an early start today at 15.32 UK time, he was too big at [16.0] first thing this morning, so I've backed him outright and he's now a loser in the book. Hopefully he'll start well and I can carry on trading him and get a juicy free bet - though the big worry is his putting. I was concerned about it before the off and he took 32 putts yesterday. He'll win nothing if that continues.

15.15- February 17, 2011

Not much to report so far at the Avantha Masters, after a three-and-a-half hour fog delay in New Delhi put the event back somewhat. The morning starters have all got round now though and the best of mine is Chapchai Nirat, who, playing the back nine first, rallied well to reach four under par - two shots off the lead held by Robert Jan Derksen.

The most noteworthy incident of this morning's action was Thongchai Jaidee's play on the par four fifth. He hit a floodlight with his tee-shot, and then his second shot ricocheted off the floodlight and out of bounds. He did the same thing again before hacking up towards the green with his sixth shot. Looking in big trouble, he was matched at [200.00].

It was only once he was alongside the green, preparing to chip on with his seventh shot that the referee with the group was made aware of the local rule stating that if you hit any floodlight with your tee-shot, you have to play the shot again. What a reprieve!

Jaidee went back to the tee, from where he made bogey, and it rejuvenated his whole round. He finished with a flurry of birdies after that and is now right back in contention on -3.

As I'd suspected in my preview, Phil Mickelson has been given an afternoon tee time at the Northern Trust Open, so I'll be monitoring him closely tonight and I'll be back tomorrow to reveal whether I took the plunge on him or not.

Pre-Event Picks

Avantha Masters:

Prayad Marksaeng @ [70.0]
Rickard Karlberg @ [80.0]
Kiradech Aphibarnrat @ [90.0]
Marcel Siem @ [110.0]
Chapchai Nirat @ [200.0]

Northern Trust Open:

Bubba Watson @ [46.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [100.0]
Y E Yang @ [110.0]
Mark Wilson @ [110.0]
Zach Johnson @ [160.0]
Fred Couples @ an average of [250.0]

In-running plays

Phil Mickelson - traded for a free bet and backed at [16.0]
SSP Chowrasia - Backed @ [3.35], but layed back at [3.20]!

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1. Tony P | 18 February 2011

   I feel you have a great bet on Phil at 16-1, best of luck to you this weekend. My only hope is Hansen making a huge late run in India. Always enjoy the read.

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