US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 June 2011 /

The US Open is no ordinary tournament and likely winners are few and far between, says Paul Krishnamurty, who recommends four wagers at Congressional

With Sunday's results fresh in mind, there is a temptation to conclude that backing the market leaders is a mug's game. In the States, Harrizon Frazar became the 15th triple-figure priced winner on this year's PGA Tour, ending a 354 tournament losing streak. Italian Open winner Robert Rock was a likelier pick at [70.0], but he too had never previously delivered in a decade of trying. Such results strengthen the new consensus that golf has never been more open, illustrated by the fact that there is nobody trading in single figures for the US Open.

That certainly doesn't mean, however, that the favourites are poor value. Far from it. Run of the mill tournaments are one thing, the US Open quite another. Whereas at least 50, perhaps 100, different players could plausibly have won the St Jude Classic, it is hard to fancy more than a couple of dozen contenders this week at Congressional. Along with the other majors, the US Open is usually one of the most predictable events of the year, because the demands of these tough set-ups are simply too penal for most. As explained in detail here, these courses strongly favour specific types of experienced, US Open specialists.

Plus, the formbook usually stands up at Congressional. The last US Open here was won by Ernie Els, with tournament specialists Colin Montgomerie, Tom Lehman and Jim Furyk close behind. The four PGA Tour events played there this century were all won by plausible candidates - Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, KJ Choi and Sergio Garcia. I'm expecting another leaderboard packed with obvious names, and recommend the following portfolio.

Outright Trading Plan
6u Lee Westwood @ [14.0]
5u Phil Mickelson @ [17.0]
Place order to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]
So far as winning the tournament is concerned, it is hard to envisage either Lee Westwood or Phil Mickelson being far away. A trade on Westwood at [14.0] would have yielded dividends in recent majors. He's made the top-three on four of his last six, with nothing worse than 16th. His case is a classic example of how world-class players often enjoy a better record in majors than lesser, weaker events. Lee's ability to consistently drive the ball long and straight is ideal for these tough layouts, particularly in this major.

While that breakthrough major has remained painfully elusive, with his career at it's peak, Westwood will never get a better opportunity. He's really taken the eye on his last three starts, suggesting a perfectly timed preparation. First he was outstanding for two rounds at the World Matchplay, then he lost a play-off at Wentworth. Last week's respectable title defence at Southwind improved as the week progressed, closing with 66.

Likewise Mickelson's last round in public, a 67 at Memorial two weeks ago, was extremely promising. Before the Masters, Phil chose to play the previous event, producing arguably the best performance of his career to win the Houston Open, only to underperform at Augusta. The decision to take a week off this time may well prove a more sensible warm-up. Due largely to his scrambling skills, nobody is better suited to the US Open than Mickelson, who has been runner-up five times, and traded odds-on in four of the last seven renewals. These simply aren't the form figures of a [17.0] chance.

As those records indicate, both men have had more than their fair share of late disasters in tournaments, so it makes good sense to lay back for profit if and when their odds shorten up. Hopefully with this plan, they'll both trade down to [3.0] and yield a substantial profit whatever the eventual outcome.

Top-10 finish
6u Luke Donald @ [2.4]
4u Matt Kuchar @ [3.5]
It isn't every day that we can take odds-against about a bet that has won nine times in a row - and 13 times out of the last 14 - that bet being Luke Donald to finish in the top 10. The Englishman presents a constant headache for layers. He has never been prolific, and even a recent career highlight victory at Wentworth was barely a convincing front-running performance. That indifferent reputation tends to keep his outright odds respectably high, and layers tend to employ a straightforward calculation when determining his odds to reach the top-ten, roughly dividing the outright price by ten. The consequence is to create a bet that represents almost constant value. Donald is so consistent that, in reality, he should be heavily odds-on and certainly nowhere near the [2.4] available here.

An almost identical argument applies to the most consistent American player. Matt Kuchar's record can't quite match up to Donald's, but that is reflected by bigger odds. Kuchar has made the top-ten on 21 of his last 42 starts, which would naturally have generated massive profit for anybody repeatedly taking this week's quote of [3.5]. The reason for both men's success is that they've managed to iron out every weakness in their games. Despite lacking power, their accuracy and brilliance around the greens ensures very few mistakes. Moreover, it is the ideal skills set for a US Open.

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