US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 04 June 2011 /

Golf fans know Congressional well as several PGA Tour events have been staged there but the course will be so much tougher than any yet played on the Maryland track. Paul Krishnamurty has five tips for punters hoping to turn a profit on the 111th US Open

Beware reading too much into recent form at Congressional
This year's US Open venue is one that PGA Tour followers should know pretty well. Congressional Country Club has hosted four events this century - the Booz Allen Classic in 2005, plus three AT&T Nationals between 2007 and 2009. Form students, however, should be wary of making assumptions based on those results. On each occasion, the course was set up much easier than it will be for this major championship, and we certainly won't see anything like the -13 recorded by Tiger Woods in 2009. The fairways will be narrower, and the rough much more penal. Defending champion Graeme McDowell predicts nobody will finish under par.

Congressional will retain its basic character from the last time it hosted this major, but golf has changed markedly since 1997 and so has this layout. It was substantially redesigned by Rees Jones in 2006, and the greens were renovated following that latest PGA Tour event. The par-3 18th is now the 10th, and plays in the reverse direction, with the brutal par-4 17th now becoming the final hole. Consequently, while some players will doubtless draw confidence from positive past memories, everybody is in effect playing a new course.

Accuracy and good scrambling are the keys to success
Despite those changes, we can make certain basic assumptions about any US Open layout, as the USGA always demands they are set up to be a battle for survival, with level par always a good score. US Open fairways are never generous, and the rough is always penal. Temperatures are usually high so without rain, the greens tend to dry out, often becoming virtually impossible to hold. This combination demands accuracy off the tee in order to retain control from the fairway, a pinpoint second shot to hold the green, plus world-class scrambling skills. Indeed, Ernie Els' victory at Congressional in 1997 owed plenty to his scrambling prowess, repeatedly saving par from tricky greenside positions.

The weather will, as always, be pivotal. If rain softens the course, Congressional could favour the big-hitters as there are some very long par-fours. Given that we're in June, though, the likelihood is that we'll see firm, fast running fairways, in which case power off the tee will be virtually irrelevant.

Back US Open specialists across a variety of markets
The leaderboard from 1997 reads like a 'Who's Who' of late 20th century US Opens. Els was winning his second title. This was the third of Colin Montgomerie's four agonising close misses in this major. Third-placed Tom Lehman played in the final group four years running from 1995 to 1998. Jeff Maggert's fourth place was one of seven top-tens over an 11 year period. Jim Furyk repeated the previous year's fifth place, before going on to win the title in 2003, and twice finish runner-up since.

Given such stats and the likely conditions, it should pay to stick with this century's US Open course specialists, and not just in the outright market. Five times runner-up Phil Mickelson is bound to be a popular pick to win the event, but there is plenty of mileage in looking beyond the outright market for reliable 3-ball and finishing positions candidates. For instance, Brandt Snedeker may not be the likeliest champion, but this ace scrambler has already shown he has the tools for this major by making two of the last three top-tens. Likewise, Hunter Mahan's ball-striking skills have yielded top-20 finishes in three of the last four US Opens.

Back proven winners with plenty of US Open experience
The US Open is no place for a novice. You have to go back to Jerry Pate in 1976 to find the last player to win this major, having previously played in it less than twice. Since then only two champions, Geoff Ogilvy and Lee Janzen, had made fewer than three appearances. The average number of previous attempts amongst winners this century is 6.5. It stands to reason, because winning a US Open requires skill, sound course management and above all patience - the hallmarks of the older player, who has learnt from past mistakes in this tough major.

Lay the final round leader and anyone who trades odds-on
Only one of the last six final round leaders has gone on to win, and that was Tiger Woods. All the other five embarrassed themselves once the pressure took it's toll. Last year Dustin Johnson led by three going into Sunday, before hitting 82 to finish eighth, turning over some extremely short odds-on bets in the top-five market. Even worse, Aaron Baddeley in 2007 and Retief Goosen two years earlier both missed the top-ten after holding significant cushions after 54 holes. Phil Mickelson was another odds-on culprit in 2006 and 2009, although on one of those occasions he had come from behind. The lesson is clear - be prepared to lay very short prices in both win and place markets. Things tend to change very fast in US Opens.

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