US Open / Steven Rawlings / 14 June 2011 / 2

American golf fans desperately need a change of fortunes according to Steve. Will they get one this week at the US Open?

Before I start, Paul Krishnamurty has written a superb betting guide that you need to read before making your selections but here's my brief synopsis of the US Open.

It's universally regarded as the toughest of the four majors. The course plays very long, the fairways are narrow, the rough is penal, and the greens are slick - verging on unfair if the weather's hot and windy. The same old faces repeatedly show up on leaderboards year after year and nothing beats event experience. It's brutal, cruel and unforgiving and many players never take to it, and even those that do, need a few years worth of experience first. The winning score is usually around level par but with rain forecast early on this week scoring may be OK over the first few days. No wind is forecast but temperatures will rise and it's likely that that this year's course, the Blue Course at Congressional Country Club, Bethesda, Maryland, will just get harder, faster and tougher as the week goes on. From a betting perspective, outsiders fare well and triple-figure priced winners are far from unusual. Now on with the preview...

British golf fans are chuffed to bits and as proud as punch to see two Englishmen head the world rankings but the achievements of Lee Westwood and Luke Donald go largely ignored by the wider British public - can you imagine the fuss if two British tennis players topped the world rankings? It's a different story on the other side of the pond though and in the week of their national title, Americans everywhere will be desperately hoping for a sea change in the world of golf.

With the old guard seemingly waning (or in the case of Tiger Woods - waning and injured!) and the new guard pretty much failing to step up to the plate, American golf has most definitely been in the doldrums of late and you only had to listen to the US commentators when Steve Stricker won the Memorial two weeks ago, or even last week when journeyman Harrison Frazar edged out Europe's Robert Karlsson, to realise how desperate America is for good news stories in a sport that's losing TV viewers far too rapidly.

Since Phil Mickelson gave the Stateside game a much needed shot in the arm when winning his third Masters title last March the US public have suffered four majors with very little to cheer about. Graeme McDowell (US Open), Louis Oosthuizen (Open Championship), Martin Kaymer (US PGA), and, most recently, Charl Schwartzel (Masters) were not only non-Americans, they were also first time major winners. I wouldn't be rude enough to suggest the average American viewer didn't know who these guys were but they weren't great results for the US public.

Fortunately for sponsors, TV audiences, and for the game itself, I think there's a chance of a truly great American story this week - a Phil Mickelson victory at Congressional.

A win at the US Open is the biggest gap on Lefty's Resume and he makes no secret of his desire to win it. Barring an impeccable performance at the Shell Houston Open in the week before his disappointing Masters defence, he hasn't been at his best this term though, but there were signs at the Memorial two weeks ago that he could be timing his run to perfection. With five runner-up finishes, his US Open record is by some distance better than anyone else's towards the head of the market and although he's talking down his chances this year, I think he's a perfectly fair price at [18.0] - especially when you consider he's traded at odds on in this event three times in the last seven years!

I'm a massive Lefty fan, (I don't care where they come from - give me Phil the Thrill over Lee the Drab any day!) so not only would a Lefty win boost my bank balance it would also give me a huge amount of pleasure and it would also restore some much needed enthusiasm in the game stateside.

Although I agree entirely with Paul Krishnamurty that taking too much notice of previous Congressional form isn't advisable my next pick, Korea's KJ Choi, has already won there - at the inaugural AT & T National in 2007. Choi's most recent win, at The Player's Championship last month, hasn't done much for his price and he's probably short enough now but as I've had him in mind for this for some time I felt I had to include him.

If Lefty doesn't provide the US feel good factor then maybe Bubba Watson will. With rain forecasted for the first two days, provided he can find fairways with some degree of regularity, his length will be a huge advantage. But he's not just a big bomber- he tops the current Greens in Regulation stats too. In 1997 Ernie Els topped the greens hit rankings when he won here and since then the worst any winner has ranked is 16th for greens hit. And four others champions have been ranked first.

Bubba came close to major success at last year's US PGA Championship - losing to Kaymer in the play-off, he already has a 5th placed finish at this event (in 2007), and he's won three times in the last twelve months. Yet again, he looks very much over-priced and he's my idea of the best value in the line-up.

After those three, we move into the realms of fantasy and all my remaining picks are [110.0] or bigger.

As mentioned above, Ernie Els won the second of his US Open's at Congressional in 1997. He has superb event record and was third just last year. He's been playing with a long putter (not too successfully) of late and I'm hoping he switches back to a shorter one this week. There have been plenty of examples of players messing about with a broom-handle before reverting back to a conventional wand and finding form - Lee Westwood the most recent.

Jonathan Byrd and Mark Wilson have both been in cracking form all year and both have won two titles in the last ten months. Quite simply, neither player should have been as big as they've been. I backed Byrd last week at [160.0] and I'm more than happy with [180.0] about Wilson.

Peter Hanson has a very similar profile to last year's winner Graeme McDowell. An accurate in-form game and improving US Open form figures, and he too was simply too big at [190.0].

I backed Ben Crane before he disappointed at the Players Championship, and he's done nothing but disappoint since. I wouldn't be in a mad rush to back him at the [270.0] now available so I'm hardly over the moon to be on at [230.0] but you never know.

Whether Davis Love III has another win left in him is extremely doubtful but given his penchant for a really stern task and his 6th placed finish last year, [350.0] was big enough to tempt me to throw a few quid at him too.

And last up is Chad Campbell. The languid Texan was hailed a major winner in waiting in his youth but he's never got close to fulfilling that promise. He's been on the edge of my radar for a few weeks now and he's playing OK. He's hardly a confident selection but he's a huge price.

Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ [18.0]
KJ Choi @ [36.0]
Bubba Watson @ [55.0]
Ernie Els @ [110.0]
Jonathan Byrd @ [160.0]
Mark Wilson @ [180.0]
Peter Hanson @ [190.0]
Ben Crane @ [240.0]
Davis Love III @ [350.0]
Chad Campbell @ [410.0]

I'll be back after each day's play with an update on proceedings and a view on the in-running market.

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1. Paul Jones | 14 June 2011

   "The languid Texan was hailed a major winner in waiting in his youth but he's never got close to fulfilling that promise." Steve - have you forgotten Cabrera's Masters ?

2. Steven Rawlings | 15 June 2011

   You're absolutely right Paul, a complete oversight on my part. He did indeed come very close to victory at the US Masters in 2009, losing in the play-off.

   Thanks for putting me straight and good luck with your bets.

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