Ryder Cup Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 September 2010 /

Paul Krishnamurty will be supplying tips ahead of each day's play at the Ryder Cup but for those looking at the long term markets here are his five main bets before play gets under way at Celtic Manor

Bet One: Europe to win @ [1.7]
There's no need to reiterate the detailed arguments I've made elsewhere, but suffice to say, a bet on Europe to win the trophy is at the core of my Ryder Cup strategy. Here's my best picks amongst the other markets.

Bets Two and Three: Rory McIlroy to be top debutant @ [5.1]
Rickie Fowler to be top debutant @ [15.0]
As I argued a few weeks ago, one of the key punting principles for the Ryder Cup is to back players in the top scorer markets who are the likeliest to play a minimum of four, and preferably all five matches. In the last five Ryder Cups, all bar one of each side's top scorers had played the maximum quota.

Differences on that score are even more relevant in the top debutant market, as few of the 11 first-timers will play such a central role. The field for this market can probably be reduced to eight runners, excluding the likes of Bubba Watson, Jeff Overton and Peter Hanson. Of the likelier candidates, I'm rather cold about Matt Kuchar and Dustin Johnson, who have been engaged in a tiring battle for the Fedex Cup, and who both saw their form level dip in last week's finale.

I think Steven Rawlings will get a good run for his money on Edoardo Molinari , and obviously have the utmost respect for European man of the moment Martin Kaymer. Narrow preference nevertheless is for Rory McIlroy and as an outside bet, Rickie Fowler. Many a great young prospect has made an instant impact on the Ryder Cup stage; most recently Anthony Kim and Sergio Garcia. Rory and Rickie are superstars in the making, and look the types to revel in this atmosphere.

McIlroy could well play the maximum number of matches, potentially forming a fearsome partnership with fellow Northern Irishman Graeme McDowell. As for Fowler, he will be one of the freshest Americans after avoiding the Tour Championship, and as Dan Geraghty points out has already showed plenty of aptitude for team matchplay in two Walker Cups. Rickie's last performance in Britain at the Open showed he is one American who can handle our bad weather too.

Bets Four and Five: Tiger Woods to be top US scorer @ [6.8]
Tiger points; 3 points @ [7.0], 3.5 points @ [10.5]
Despite a truly awful year, something tells me Tiger will make his mark on this Ryder Cup. Failing to qualify for the Fedex Cup finale must have been humiliating for someone who was previously so far ahead of his peers that he could afford to opt out of play-off events, but there were definite signs of improvement during that series. Were anyone else to register three straight top-15s in events of that magnitude, it would be regarded as a good run of form. Moreover, having enjoyed a fortnight off to work on his game ahead of Celtic Manor, he will arrive fresher than the nine team-mates who were involved at East Lake over the weekend.

For the first time ever, there is a doubt whether he will play all five matches. However, I would be amazed if Corey Pavin didn't include Tiger in Thursday morning's four-balls, from where he will have a chance to show his form and stake his claim to stay on the course. The chances are that Pavin will re-form Tiger's partnership with Steve Stricker, that earned a perfect four points in last year's Presidents Cup. He remains the likeliest American to play in every round and that alone makes him a worthy favourite to top finish as top US scorer.

In addition to that bet, I'm having a combined trade on his total number of points. Combining three and 3.5 points equates to around [4.2], which will hopefully represent a bit of value ahead of Sunday's singles. If Tiger earns anything between 2 and 3.5 points over the first two days, those [4.2] odds would represent value about the outcome of his singles match.

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