Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 23 November 2010 / 1

The world number one has been the most consistent golfer over the last 18 months and would a consecutive Dubai World Championship title is well within his grasp, says Paul Krishnamurty.

As we enter these final few weeks of the season, it seems increasingly certain that England's finest will end the year as the world's number one ranked player. Whether, as a non-major winner, he truly deserves the accolade, remains arguable but Lee Westwood could go a long way to justifying his new status by defending his Dubai World Championship title this week at the Earth Course.

On balance, I think it is justified because he has been the most consistent performer over the past 18 months. Were it not for a troublesome calf injury, he could have been challenging Martin Kaymer for the Race to Dubai. In fact, he would still have held a decent chance if he hadn't been such an unlucky loser last time out at the WGC event in Shanghai. My heart goes out to anyone who backed Lee that week, only to see him finish second to Francesco Molinari, with the third placed player eight shots back. Watching Molinari, one of the game's most infamous bottlers, hole everything in sight that weekend, must have been torturous.

Nevertheless, we should be careful not to get carried away. Lee is never likely to dominate the rankings the way Tiger Woods has, and he will do remarkably well to still be in pole position this time next year. Kaymer is only one of several superb prospects eyeing global dominance. More immediately, it is very difficult to get excited about the prospect of taking just [7.8] about Westwood this week. For sure, he is a worthy favourite as defending champion, winning this title by six shots last year. Betting is ultimately about value though, and this quote is just too short, especially compared to his [5.2] quote for next week's 12-man Nedbank Challenge.

This week's task is considerably tougher. The field in Dubai is very strong, comprising of the 60 best players in Europe over the season. Next week at Sun City, he will face just 11 opponents, and while that includes four major winners, there is nobody else from the world's top-ten. Against such company, on a course that is ideal for his long, straight driving, [5.2] represents perfectly reasonable value. If you want to back Westwood, this is the tournament in which to do so. Moreover if you back him now and he goes on to have a good week in Dubai, profit will almost certainly become available as his Nedbank odds will shorten.

For me, there has to be better value available in Dubai. Granted, his credentials are rock-solid, but should Westwood really be at least five points shorter than the two Race to Dubai principals, Martin Kaymer and Graeme McDowell? That pair can boast seven 2010 titles between them, including three majors, compared to Westwood's one. For that matter, does he deserve to be twice the odds of last week's impressive winner, Ian Poulter?

As it happens, I'm not particularly interested in backing any of them either. This is a huge week for Kaymer, and punters who took my advice to back him for the money list back in May. Hopefully we'll collect, but the race could be a distraction for both him and McDowell. Poulter is attempting the rare feat of back-to-back wins.

Instead, my cash is directed towards another big-name, Paul Casey. This time last year, Paul arrived in Dubai struggling to recover from a rib injury that derailed a strong bid for the money list. Under the circumstances, 11th was an excellent debut result at the Earth Course. Twelve months on, Casey seems to be rediscovering the form that took him up to third in the world rankings, making the top-six on his last three starts, all amidst elite company in either Fedex Cup or WGC events. Also at much bigger prices, Miguel-Angel Jimenez and Peter Hanson could represent good trading value. Both made the top-ten last year, and both can boast solid recent, winning form, as well as the Gulf region generally.

Recommended bets:

Dubai World Championship

Paul Casey @ [19.0]
Miguel-Angel Jimenez @ [50.0]
Peter Hanson @ [70.0]

Nedbank Golf Challenge

Lee Westwood @ [5.2]

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1. Anonymous | 23 November 2010

   ive had GMAC, JIMINEZ, HANSON, AIKEN who i think could be a lively outsider looking to finish on a high best ov luck.

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