Race To Dubai / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 May 2010 /

With the money list race wide open, this weekend's lucrative tournament at Wentworth is a must for the big names, says Paul Krishnamurty.

Having very much played second fiddle to the PGA Tour recently, Europe takes centre stage this week. As always, pretty much everyone who is anyone on the European Tour is teeing it up at Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship. With E750,000 going to the winner, and half a million to the runner-up, nobody with serious ambitions of winning the Race to Dubai can afford to miss out.

Five months into its second renewal, the money list race looks wide open. Ian Poulter's win at the World Matchplay propelled him to the early lead, but he'll probably need to treble his current E1.36M total. Not an easy task when he plays so much of his golf in the US. Anyone thriving over the next eight weeks could easily find themselves at the head of affairs. Following this lucrative week, we have two majors and three events with E3M prize funds before the end of July.

Predictably, last year's race winner Lee Westwood is favourite at around [4.0]. Lee moved into the world's top three over the weekend, and nobody appears stronger in the long game department at the moment. Nevertheless, he'll really need to win a few titles if he wants to retain his European No.1 status, and as I discussed last week, there are big questions surrounding Westwood's 'bottle' at present. So while I'm sure he'll be in the shake-up when the money list reaches its November finale, those short odds make little appeal.

As defending PGA champion, its a big week for the man I picked back in February at [17.0], Paul Casey. His odds have almost halved since, but while I expect him to be a strong candidate throughout the season, right now a few doubts remain after a couple of injury problems.

This strikes me as the opportune moment to get on a couple of last year's principals, Martin Kaymer and Ross Fisher. In particular, the former strikes me as superb value at around [12.0]. He's currently in seventh place on the money list, but the E600,000 deficit could be overhauled with one good week.

Kaymer's star seems to have waned a little since a brilliant start to the season that saw him win a second Abu Dhabi title and go close amongst elite company in Dubai and in the WGC event at Doral. His drift in price is probably due to a couple of missed cuts in the US, but they were entirely forgiveable as he lacked experience on the tricky, super-slick greens of Redstone and Augusta.

Back in Europe, I expect Kaymer to be dangerous on an almost weekly basis. Some of his favourite tournaments are coming up soon, too. He will be defending champion in both the French and Scottish Opens, and must also rate a serious candidate for the Open at St Andrews. After all, he nearly won at the 'Home of Golf' when very inexperienced in the 2008 Dunhill Links. Though he's yet to seriously challenge at Wentworth, he's improved with each visit and has improved considerably since finishing 11th last year.

At much bigger odds, Fisher is a more speculative bet, but again I think layers are over-reacting to some poor results in the US. The fact is, most of the American courses that host the biggest events do take plenty of learning, and up and coming Europeans have always tended to struggle in their early attempts. Now the race is mostly back in Europe, it would be no surprise to see Ross hit top gear once again.

Nowhere is more likely than Wentworth, as he has strong connections with this course. Fisher was extremely unlucky not to win this title last year after bumping into Casey in imperious form. His -16 tally would have been good enough to win this in several other years, and was well clear of the rest. Again, good previous performances at many of this summer's main venues bode well, so at around [75.0], he's worth a nibble to win the money list, in which he was a competitive fourth last year despite failing to win a single title.

Recommended bets:

Race to Dubai -
Martin Kaymer @ [12.0]
Ross Fisher @ [60.0]

Already advised -
Paul Casey @ [17.0]
Alex Noren @ [60.0]

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