The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 July 2010 /

The leader of The Open is a player very few would expect to find in this position but a four-shot lead is a big safety net in this tournament and at this golf course. So say the stats, so says Paul Krishnamurty...

Having traded at [600.0] pre-tournament, and very briefly at [990.0] on the opening day, Louis Oosthuizen stands on the verge of one of golf's greatest upsets. The 27 year-old South African, who only won his first title beyond the Sunshine Tour four months ago, takes a four-shot lead over Paul Casey into this afternoon's final round, with a further three-shot gap to the rest.

With last month's US Open finale (when Dustin Johnson spectacularly blew a big final-round lead in pursuit of his first major title) still fresh in the memory, many punters will doubtless consider odds-on about Oosthuizen to be an obvious lay. Before diving in at [1.95], however, they would do well to consider previous stats at St Andrews. Because unlike most Open venues, the 'Home of Golf' has never been an easy layout on which to play catch-up.

Seven of the eleven post-war Opens to be held at St Andrews saw the final round leader hang on. The biggest turnaround came in 1995, when John Daly came from four shots off the pace; the equivalent deficit that Casey needs to overhaul.

The other form guide is the Dunhill Links Championship, for which the final round is always played at St Andrews. Final round leaders have been less dominant in that pro-am, winning four out of nine this century, but the trends are not entirely dissimilar. Only once since the tournament's inception has any champion started the final round more than three shots back, and even then, Colin Montgomerie came from second place.

None of this reads well for me, or anyone else holding positions on the chasing pack for that matter. My picks over the last couple of days include four plausible candidates, all inside the top-ten, but in order to 'green up', one of them will need to substantially narrow what is currently at least a seven-shot gap. Nevertheless, the likes of Martin Kaymer and Alejandro Canizares, recommended at [46.0] and [220.0] respectively, are perfectly capable of shooting the 65 required to frighten the leader.

Ultimately though, this is Oosthuizen's to lose. Given that he'd never faced anything like yesterday's pressure, he was superb and apparently nerveless. And although the circumstances bear little resemblance, he put up an outstanding front-running performance when winning this year's Andalucia Open. Even if he does wobble it would be no surprise to see the principal challenger suffer from his own jitters, as Casey is also chasing his first major.

The obvious straw for layers to clutch is that massive turnarounds do happen in Opens. Who can forget Paul Lawrie winning from ten behind going into Sunday at Carnoustie in 1999, when Jean Van de Velde lost his mind? The point that is rarely mentioned about Van de Velde is that he was flawless all weekend up until the 72nd hole, apparently unfazed by the pressure of carrying the Open lead. On that level, there are similarities with Oosthuizen.

However, the key difference with Carnoustie is the final hole. Whereas the Barry Burn ruins many a round there, St Andrews' 18th must be the most predictable final hole in world golf. Yesterday, it saw only one eagle and one bogey or worse. In other words, a single shot swing is the most one can realistically expect. Hardly ideal for a major.

In fact, there are very few holes where the leader is likely to have a complete disaster. Only the 'Road Hole' 17th saw more than three double-bogeys yesterday. If avoiding worse than bogey there, and racking up a couple of birdies on the driveable holes and par-fives, Louis will be very hard to pass. So while it might seem counter-intuitive for any experienced Betfarian to back an odds-on golfer, let alone in a major, let alone in an Open, for once the best value really does lie with the favourite.

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