The Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 July 2010 /

Whether Louis Oosthuizen can be caught on day three depends very much on what the conditions are like out there but if a challenge is going to come, it could well come from one of these three guys, starting with St Andrews and foul-weather specialist Retief Goosen.

If ever an illustration was required to explain why the Open Championship is the best event on the golfing calendar, yesterday provided it. Only a British links venue could plausibly see a leaderboard turned on its head in quite that fashion. As the weather turned very nasty, St Andrews was transformed from Thursday's layout that saw Rory McIlroy shoot 63, to one where anything under 75 represented an excellent day's work. McIlroy, who started the day as [4.4] favourite, is out to [55.0] after shooting 80.

This is hardly a unique experience for the Open, as weather is usually a links course's principal defence; particularly this one. If there is a significant change in weather conditions at different stages of the day, a ten shot swing between two players is perfectly plausible. No doubt that will lead many to assume that the current runaway leader, pre-tournament [600.0] chance Louis Oosthuizen, is bound to be caught or fall away over the weekend.

That remains to be seen. Granted, Oosthuisen has never been in anything remotely like this position before, and has no prior Open pedigree. He has, however, already impressively won an event from the front this season and this course has a long history of favouring the leaders. Tomorrow's weather forecast is barely any better, and while that increases the potential of Louis shooting a big number, it also means few of the chasers are likely to get close to his current -12 tally.

I certainly wouldn't be a layer at [4.6], and expect those odds will shorten up. Nevertheless, rather than backing the favourite, surely a more enjoyable way of spending 'Moving Day' is to pick out a few from the chasing pack. I'm going for the following trio. While they may all seem a long way back right now, at seven or eight shots off the pace, they are only one or two off third place.

Retief Goosen [27.0]

Few players have greater prowess in bad weather than Goosen. That has enabled him to build an impressive Open record over the years, with nine top-15 finishes, and he has plenty of previous here too. Back around the turn of the century, when Goose was just emerging as a Euro Tour star, he held the all-time record for consecutive match victories in the Dunhill Cup. That team event was always played at St Andrews in October, usually in wet and windy conditions.

Martin Kaymer [44.0]

Kaymer's interview caught the eye today. Whereas most players must have hated those brutal conditions, Kaymer couldn't stress how much he enjoyed the challenge. Nobody doubts that the young German could win this major in the years ahead, but he could already be a plausible challenger. After all, he made the top-ten at a different sort of links course, Pebble Beach, in last month's US Open. He's already gone very close at St Andrews, finishing runner-up in the Dunhill Cup two years ago, and has improved since.

Nick Watney [70.0]

St Andrews favours the big-hitters at the best of times, but particularly so when the course is softened by rain. Watney is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, and can reduce much of this course to a pitch and putt. Prior to this week, I would have doubted his suitability for harsh Scottish weather, but yesterday's 73 in the very worst of the conditions dispelled those worries.

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