Golf Events / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 December 2010 /

If you like getting behind the favourites now is the time to do so, argues Paul Krishnamurty in his weekly look at the golf betting world

Last week's three results did little to disprove the theory that this winter close season tends to be the most prosperous time of the year for form students and favourite backers.

Lee Westwood, tipped here a fortnight ago, delivered in style at the Nedbank Challenge while Geoff Ogilvy begun his successful Australian Open bid as second favourite. If only Tiger Woods hadn't, unbelievably, surrendered a four-shot lead in his own tournament, there would doubtless be plenty of big-hitters sitting on a pile of cash right now. The sensible ones will surely have greened up when they had the chance.

After studying this week's two events, I'm convinced we're set for a similar story. Firstly, there's the Australian PGA Championship, which always seems to be a straightforward puzzle. All of the last six champions started the week amongst the leading handful in the betting, and all bar three of the 31 players to have made the top-five in those renewals fulfilled my 'golden rule' for Australian triple-crown events. To repeat, the golden rule states that calculations in these events should be limited to the relatively small number of candidates who have shown prowess overseas.

Separating the front-three at Coolum, however, is far from straightforward. Ogilvy deserves favouritism after his runaway success in the Australian Open, and while back-to-back winners are generally rare, there are encouraging precedents. Both Peter Lonard and Robert Allenby completed the Open/PGA double in 2004 and 2005 respectively.

Alternatively, there's Adam Scott, who again showed his prowess in rain-soaked conditions to win the high-class Singapore Open last month. Given that Coolum is currently under water, he should be licking his lips. With four PGA titles this century, Allenby supporters could also plausibly argue that their man deserves favouritism, although his title defence at the Nedbank was nothing to get excited about.

Though I'm confident one of them will win, (or if not, fourth favourite John Senden has rock-solid credentials), the best bet of the week comes in South Africa, where there is no dispute about the favourite's identity. Charl Schwartzel starts at just [7.6] to win the Alfred Dunhill Championship, which looks short at first glance, until factoring in the opposition. Compared to previous years, when the likes of Els, Goosen, Clark, Immelman and the odd overseas star could usually be relied upon to turn up, this field is extremely weak. Apart from Open champion Louis Oosthuizen, Schwartzel is the only member of the world's top-100.

Since this event moved to Leopard Creek six years ago, the formbook has tended to stand up, if not to quite the same degree as the Australian PGA. Three of the six champions were amongst the first three in the betting; Schwartzel, Els and Richard Sterne. That would be four, had Ernie not blown the 2007 renewal with one of the most infamous final hole collapses of all-time. Moreover, the places have been largely predictable, none more so than Schwartzel himself, who has been runner-up three times since that win in 2004. The key feature to scoring at Leopard Creek is the four par-fives, and it is here that big-hitting Schwartzel has run up most of his red numbers.

The important point to remember with Charl is that he is still improving. He was only 20-years-old when winning here, and already carrying around a big reputation. It has taken longer than many expected for him to develop, but 2010 was easily his best ever season. He's long been established as a regular candidate in Europe, but this year he started to produce on the world stage in the biggest events. Schwartzel made the top-30 in all four majors, finished runner-up in the WGC event at Doral, and third at the high-class Houston Open. Again, this is a series of results that amongst this field, only Oosthuizen could even dream of matching in the foreseeable future.

The consequence of this improved campaign is that European fans are going to see a lot less of Schwartzel, as he's decided to ply his trade predominantly in the States next year. Now he'll be getting used to PGA Tour conditions, there will be worse outside bets in the majors. He begun this final season as a 'European' player with back-to-back wins in co-sanctioned African events, and is strongly fancied to bow out in similar style.

Recommended Bet:
Back Charl Schwartzel @ [7.6] to win the Alfred Dunhill Championship

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