Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 24 January 2012 /

A pair of emerging Euro stars can make their mark amongst the elite in Abu Dhabi this week, says Paul Krishnamurty

As any experienced punter will confirm, it is essential to look for positives after a frustrating near-miss. Last week's column nearly produced the perfect staking plan, with Robert Garrigus and John Mallinger hitting four lay targets and banking a total of 52 units profit, before ultimately coming up agonisingly short in a tie for second place. So while the search for a triple-figure priced winner once again proved elusive, I'm remaining philosophical and just pleased that the profit earned will cover many more bets for many months ahead.

This week, I'm focusing on the Abu Dhabi Championship, and a couple of rising European stars whom the market appears to underestimate. The stats from previous renewals here strongly confirm the importance of high-class iron play, so the greens in regulation figures are particularly of interest. Both of these picks rate very highly in that pivotal department, yet thanks to the presence of so many world stars, can be backed at vastly inflated odds compared to their usual level.

Firstly, odds of [170.0] simply don't reflect Joost Luiten's form over the past two seasons, during which time the Dutchman has registered an impressive 25 top-20 finishes, including 13 top-tens.

Although he's struggled to finish the job so far, only winning his maiden title last November in the Johor Open, few would doubt his potential to achieve much, much more in the game. Usually among the favourites on this tour, these odds must be an over-reaction to a poor weekend around the tough links of Fancourt. That is very harsh considering the difficulty of that course, and shouldn't be taken as a sign that Luiten won't perform on this much easier layout, where he finished a respectable 23rd on last year's debut.

Secondly, Rafael Cabrera-Bello finished last season in excellent fashion, topping the greens in regulation over the final three months of 2012 on the Euro Tour and leaving the strong suggestion that this well-regarded Spaniard was about to start to fulfil his potential. Cabrera-Bello has already shown a liking for the Abu Dhabi test, finishing 15th here in 2009 and seventh last year. Layers offering odds of [250.0] may be taking a big risk.

The trading plan is very similar to last week, with two lay orders planned for each player at [15.0] and [3.0]. Should either man hit the first target, we'll treble the initial outlay.

Recommended Bets
1.5u Joost Luiten @ [170.0]
1u Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ [250.0]

Place orders to lay 10u @ [15.0]
Place orders to lay 20u @ [3.0]
Updated 2012 stats: +55u

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