General / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 October 2011 /

Favourite backers have had a tough time of late but Paul Krishnamurty is convinced that they may find some short odds joy in Georgia this week...

Another week in the crazy 2011 golfing calendar, another couple of first-time winners, another pair of disappointing favourites. To be fair, Tiger Woods' market prominence was always down to reputation rather than form, and it was no great surprise to see Woods back in the pack on his return from injury.

No such excuses can be made, however, for Luke Donald, whose odds were driven into an all-time low at the Madrid Masters before he failed to even make the top-ten. This following on from Michael Hoey's [800.00] success in the Dunhill Links, and perennial loser Kevin Na's breakthrough in Nevada. If results keep going like this, there will surely come a point when punters give up altogether on short-priced golfers.

Generally speaking, I'm already there. As I've written before, the game has changed and it's more wide-open than ever before. The best strategy nowadays lies in trying to find value at the other end of the market, where players either have plenty of improvement yet to come, or have been unfairly written off because of a few disappointing results. Nevertheless, flexibility remains essential to successful punting, and there will still be the occasional event where the favourite represents great value. This week's McGladrey Classic is one of them.

Appearances by the top players are few and far between during the 'Fall Series', but the race for the money list has encouraged Webb Simpson to line up at Sea Island in a bid to close a $70,000 deficit behind Donald. Webb isn't the only big name in Georgia, but a field containing ten of the world's top-50 is not particularly strong by PGA Tour standards.

We know that Simpson is well-suited to the Sea Island challenge because he finished 12th last year. Nothing special on paper, except it must be remembered that he was a relative golfing nobody 12 months ago, with no wins and just six top-ten finishes to his name on the PGA Tour. The 2012 version is unrecognisable - without doubt the most improved player on the planet. Nobody bar perhaps Donald has been more consistent, as illustrated by a record of ten top-ten finishes, including two wins and two second places. Most of which came against stronger fields than this.

It should also be noted that Simpson is just about the only top player to deliver the goods in recent months. Since Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic at the beginning of July, Simpson is the only favourite to win on the PGA Tour, at the Wyndham Championship. He was also among the favourites when winning the Deutsche Bank in August. The only blot on his copybook was failing to convert at the Tour Championship, when starting as hot favourite to win the Fedex Cup. Given that everybody else also seemed to struggle under the pressure of chasing $10M that week, it's easy to forgive. A subsequent break should mean he arrives at Sea Island fully recharged.

Yet despite these water-tight credentials, Simpson is a [14.5] chance. Imagine another top player, say Martin Kaymer, could boast similar figures. The German, who has gone right off the boil since briefly becoming world number one in March, and whose last two efforts were poor despite being defending champion, is only [11.0] in Portugal, against a field which is no weaker than Simpson will face in Georgia. A very clear case of one great value bet, and one terrible value bet. My advice is to back the American in a variety of markets, and don't even give the German a second look.

Recommended Bets
https://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104081230&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
Webb Simpson @ [14.5] to win the McGladrey Classic
https://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104081232&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
Webb Simpson @ [2.5] to finish in the top-ten
https://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104081230&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013

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